FX.co ★ Chicago Fed National Activity Index Slips in July Staying Below Trend

In July, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) slightly declined to -0.19 from a revised -0.18 in June, indicating that U.S. economic activity remained below its long-term average for the fourth consecutive month. While only one of the four major categories showed a worsening trend compared to June, three still contributed negatively to the index in July. Specifically, production-related indicators had a negative impact of -0.10, a shift from +0.01 in June. Employment-related indicators improved slightly, contributing -0.06 compared to -0.08 previously. The category encompassing sales, orders, and inventories showed a contribution of -0.02, an improvement from -0.10. The personal consumption and housing category remained neutral, consistent with its -0.01 contribution in June.