FX.co ★ India 10Y Yield Highest Since 2024

The yield on India’s 10-year government security (G-Sec) rose to around 7.1%, extending its advance to the highest level since May 2024, as crude oil prices surged following President Donald Trump’s warning of continued strikes on Iran. The jump in oil prices has strengthened inflation expectations and sharpened concerns that the Reserve Bank of India may be forced to raise interest rates. Market participants noted that oil prices above $100 per barrel could drive inflation beyond 6%. They also indicated that expectations of additional rate hikes are already partly embedded in bond yields, reflecting persistent geopolitical tensions and ongoing domestic fiscal uncertainties. Caution also prevailed ahead of the government’s first debt issuance for FY27. At the same time, investors evaluated recent economic data, including the Manufacturing PMI, which eased to 53.9 in March from 56.9 in February, as factory output and new orders expanded at the slowest pace since mid-2022. Markets will remain closed on April 3 and will reopen on Monday.