FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I remain comfortable with my decision to stay out of the market during the holidays, and I view that pause as a necessary reset rather than a missed opportunity. I see GBP/USD broadly unchanged in structure, because I was expecting a corrective move toward the 1.33 area and I am still waiting for that scenario to unfold. I note that the pair failed to break and hold above 1.34, and I do not interpret this as a problem for the broader bullish picture. I emphasize the strength of the rally from the 1.30008 area, and I believe such an impulsive move logically requires a corrective phase to balance the market. I maintain that the upward momentum remains intact, but I also stress that after such growth, a decline in either price or time is necessary. I expect this correction to develop next week, potentially through a period of consolidation around 1.34 or a deeper pullback into the 1.32–1.3250 zone. I treat 1.33 as an average corrective level rather than a precise target, and I remain flexible about how the market reaches it. I strictly adhere to the idea that selling against the dominant trend is risky, and I therefore view any southern movement as corrective rather than trend-changing. I acknowledge that I do not yet have a perfectly clear macro picture for the British pound, but I still assign a high probability to continued medium-term growth. I expect that after the correction, the pair can resume a bullish phase lasting one to two months and eventually break above 1.3788 with relatively little resistance.

I analyze the intraday structure and observe that on the hourly timeframe I am seeing a wide downward channel, but I also see that within it the price action forms a broader upward channel. I note that after rebounding from the support zone around 1.3445, I see buyers pushing price north toward 1.3456, which confirms short-term demand. I project that buyers may aim for the resistance area near 1.3490 if momentum persists. I then shift to the four-hour timeframe, where I identify a strong buy signal within a wide ascending channel. I observe that price has repeatedly respected the lower boundary of this channel, and I interpret these rebounds as evidence of sustained bullish interest. I consider a move toward 1.3500 or higher to be realistic from current levels, with the previous high near 1.3790 acting as a longer-term objective. I also factor in the weekly chart, where I see a northward correction and a balance between bulls and bears, with bulls holding a slight statistical edge. I recognize that the upcoming US data calendar is heavy, including PMIs, labor market indicators, and Non-Farm Payrolls, and I expect volatility to rise accordingly. I conclude that despite visible bullish targets on Fibonacci projections, I still anticipate a southern correction, ideally through a break below 1.3400 and potentially toward 1.3305, before the broader uptrend resumes.