FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/CHF

I will wait patiently for the USDCHF price correction to fully exhaust itself on the four-hour chart before committing to any active market participation, because I want confirmation that the corrective phase has clearly ended. I am intentionally aligning my approach with the prevailing uptrend, as I believe trading in the direction of the dominant market structure significantly improves probability and reduces unnecessary risk. I have already identified clear long signals that support this bullish continuation scenario, and I plan to rely on two primary technical confirmations to justify my buy decision. I am closely monitoring the MACD indicator, and I note that the MACD histogram has once again exited the negative zone, which I interpret as a weakening of bearish pressure. I see additional strength in the fact that the histogram has crossed above the zero level and moved into positive territory, where it is now gradually expanding, signaling growing bullish momentum. I am also encouraged because the MACD moving average line has turned north, which I consider an early but important sign of trend continuation. I am combining this momentum analysis with overall price structure, and I observe that the pair continues to respect higher lows within the broader upward channel. I am confident that as long as the correction remains shallow and does not violate key support levels, the bullish bias remains intact. I am specifically focusing on the 0.7985 resistance level, and I believe the current technical conditions favor a successful breakout above this zone. I am aware that this level may initially act as resistance, but I expect buying pressure to overcome it as momentum builds. I am structuring this trading plan with discipline, patience, and confirmation in mind, as I want to avoid premature entries. I am fully prepared to execute the buy trade only after the correction clearly ends and bullish continuation signals align, and I consider this structured plan to be the most logical and technically justified approach for trading USDCHF under current market conditions.

I see the first trading day on USD/CHF as generally bullish in tone, but I clearly do not interpret the price action as a true breakout or the beginning of a strong directional move. I view the entire session more as a flat movement within a very narrow and unremarkable range, which does not provide any meaningful trading opportunities. I note that against this background, the price failed to break properly below the moving average, and because of this, I do not see any technical justification to speak about a serious collapse at this stage. I personally would not rush into opening positions on this pair, because I simply do not find anything technically attractive or convincing right now. I acknowledge that there are some early hints suggesting a possible transition toward an upward trend, but I find the pace of this rise excessively slow, which makes me skeptical about the strength and sustainability of a bullish move. I also consider the broader fundamental context, and I recognize that the US dollar may move sharply at the market open due to important global events that took place overnight. I believe the market is doubly dangerous at the moment, because such news-driven uncertainty is combined with the traditionally unstable nature of the first few trading days of the year. I am observing that from a technical perspective, a price channel is forming between the 0.7900 and 0.7940 levels, and I treat this range as the dominant structure for now. I see on the smaller hourly timeframe that price is consolidating, seemingly below the moving average, but I do not believe this setup gives the bears any real technical advantage. I also notice that even the preliminary downward breakout attempt does not play any significant role, because the market environment appears to be shifting into a different phase altogether. I interpret this shift as a transition into conditions where traditional breakout signals lose their relevance and reliability. I therefore believe that despite the current hesitation and lack of momentum, the USD/CHF pair will still gravitate toward the upper boundary of the range, and I expect price to eventually move in the direction of 0.7940.