FX.co ★ absh kaat | XAU/USD, GOLD

I see the gold market as a structure that does not require headlines, economic calendars, or breaking news to justify directional movement, because I believe price itself already reflects the collective decisions of all participants. I accept that we will never truly know the real motive behind any single large trade, and I am comfortable operating without that knowledge because I focus on what the chart is actually doing. I acknowledge that understanding how to filter information from online resources can be useful, but I personally treat such data as secondary confirmation rather than a primary driver. I recognize that the market could open with a bullish gap or immediately move lower, and I see both outcomes as equally possible in the current environment. I factor in the ongoing military conflict and the direct involvement of the United States, and I understand that this situation can temporarily support the US dollar, which in turn can pressure gold in the short term. I also note that although the conflict ended quickly, the speed of the resolution raises questions, and I view this uncertainty as a catalyst for volatility rather than a clear directional signal. I believe that gold often thrives on distrust and unresolved narratives, and I think this underlying tension keeps the long-term bullish case alive. I suspect that the current move is part of a short-term trend, and I do not yet see enough technical evidence to justify aggressive long positioning. I accept that a sharp upside impulse toward the $5,000 per ounce area is possible, and I consider the concept of “soon” to be highly flexible in market terms. I personally believe that such levels could be reached by autumn or even earlier if momentum accelerates. I remain disciplined in my approach, and I will not buy simply because price is high or because forecasts sound attractive. I will only consider long positions once I see a clear transition from a short-term structure into a confirmed long-term trend. I trust trend behavior more than opinions, projections, or emotional narratives.

I view the current gold market structure as technically fragile despite the apparent support holding price in a narrow range. I agree with the logic that a revisit or even a test of the 4404.46 high remains possible, especially given how liquidity often seeks prior highs before a decisive move. I recognize that my previous bearish outlook has not yet played out, and I acknowledge that the market is still effectively consolidating rather than trending decisively. I still believe, however, that this pause is corrective rather than accumulative, and I continue to expect a downward resolution. I maintain my primary downside target near 4168.73, and I remain open to the idea that price could extend even lower if selling pressure accelerates. I consider the possibility of a gap at the Monday open to be realistic, particularly after the weekend events that may inject emotional or speculative orders into the market. I can easily imagine an initial spike higher designed to attract late buyers and trigger breakout orders before the market reverses lower. I interpret such a move as a classic liquidity grab rather than genuine bullish continuation. I pay close attention to the current seller-buyer ratio, and I find the imbalance of 37 percent sellers versus 63 percent buyers to be a warning sign rather than a bullish confirmation. I often see markets move against the majority when positioning becomes too one-sided, and I believe gold is currently in that vulnerable state. I rely more on structure and behavior than sentiment alone, but I see sentiment as reinforcing my bearish bias. I treat the sketched levels and scenarios on the chart as a roadmap rather than a fixed prediction. I remain patient and disciplined, knowing that timing matters more than being early. I will not chase price if it spikes higher, and I prefer to wait for confirmation of seller strength after any false upside move. I believe the broader context still favors a corrective phase, and I am prepared to adjust only if the market proves me wrong through sustained acceptance above key resistance levels.