FX.co ★ absh kaat | GBP/USD

I am observing that Friday’s close on the GBP/USD currency pair formed a structure very close to a pin bar, which I interpret as a potential early warning of seller pressure emerging near the recent highs. I note that the current price around 1.3441 places the market in a technically sensitive zone, and I see this level as an area where short-term traders may begin to reassess bullish exposure. I am focusing on the hourly chart, where I can clearly identify sell targets that align well with Fibonacci extension levels and broader intraday market structure. I consider the first target at the 161.8 Fibonacci level around 1.3389 to be a realistic and conservative objective, and I believe it could be reached if bearish momentum gains even modest traction. I see this level as a natural magnet for price, as I often observe partial profit-taking and short-term reactions around such extensions. I also recognize the second target at the 261.8 Fibonacci level near 1.3321 as a more ambitious but still achievable move, especially if the U.S. dollar strengthens or risk sentiment deteriorates. I believe that a clean break below the first target would likely accelerate selling pressure and encourage price to seek liquidity lower. I am particularly attentive to the third target at the 423.6 Fibonacci level around 1.3212, as I view this zone as a deeper corrective objective rather than an immediate goal. I acknowledge that reaching this third target would likely require strong follow-through, sustained bearish structure on lower timeframes, and supportive fundamental or sentiment-driven catalysts. I remain aware that countertrend pullbacks can occur at any stage, and I therefore emphasize disciplined risk management in my approach. I conclude that the alignment of the pin bar-like close, hourly sell targets, and Fibonacci projections supports my bearish scenario, and I am prepared to reassess my bias if price invalidates this structure.

I wish everyone a productive new trading week as I begin my analysis by noting that the price is currently trading around 1.3440 and is directly testing the daily moving average, which I see as a key dynamic level of interest. I am paying close attention to the interaction between price and this moving average because I often treat it as a short- to medium-term trend filter. I believe that as long as the price remains below or struggles around this level, bullish confidence will remain limited. I am specifically waiting for a decisive daily close in the form of a full-bodied bearish candle below the moving average, as I consider this confirmation essential before committing to a bearish bias. I see such a close as a clear signal that sellers are regaining control and that selling should become the priority strategy. I also recognize that false breaks can occur, so I prefer patience and confirmation rather than anticipation. I am looking to the downside and identifying the support level at 1.3308 as an important objective, and I view a breakout below this level as a strong continuation signal. I believe that once this support is breached, it could trigger stop orders and increase bearish momentum. I do not see the 1.3308 area as the final destination for price, and I expect that further downside expansion could follow if market conditions align. I am factoring in the broader market context, including overall dollar sentiment and risk appetite, which could further support a deeper decline. I remain aware that intraday pullbacks toward the moving average are possible, and I see them as potential opportunities rather than immediate threats to the bearish scenario. I am committed to managing risk carefully, as volatility can increase sharply near key technical levels. I conclude that the current test of the daily moving average is a decisive moment for the market, and I am prepared to maintain a bearish outlook as long as price behavior continues to confirm this structure.