FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/CAD

I am analyzing the USDCAD pair on the hourly timeframe, and I can clearly see that the price has successfully consolidated above the key pivot level, which reinforces my bullish outlook for the near term. I note that the overall market structure remains firmly in an uptrend, as higher highs and higher lows continue to dominate the chart, confirming that buyers are still in control. I also observe that the Stochastic Oscillator is currently positioned in the overbought zone, which tells me that bullish momentum is strong, even though I remain aware that short-term pullbacks are always possible under such conditions. I recall that during the last trading session, the pair extended its upward movement, and I saw the bullish group confidently defend the pivot level and manage a solid close around 1.3730. I consider the classic pivot point to be an important benchmark for intraday growth, and I use it as a reference to gauge whether bullish pressure remains dominant throughout the session. I expect the rally to continue from the current price area, and I am targeting the first resistance level at 1.3769 as the next logical objective for buyers. I believe that a strong consolidation above this resistance will confirm sustained bullish interest, and I anticipate that such price behavior will trigger a fresh wave of buying activity. I then expect this renewed momentum to push the pair further north, potentially driving the price above the second resistance level at 1.3867. I also remain cautious and realistic, as I understand that market sentiment can shift quickly, and I am prepared for a scenario in which bears attempt to regain control. I recognize that if sellers re-enter the market with strength, the support level at 1.3609 will become a crucial benchmark for assessing the stability of the current bullish structure. I view this support as a key line in the sand, and I believe that holding above it would keep the broader bullish scenario intact, while a breakdown below it would force me to reassess my outlook for this section of the chart.

I am currently analyzing USDCAD on the daily and four-hour timeframes, and I must admit that things are not going smoothly for me with the Canadian dollar at this stage. I am trying to catch a reversal on long positions, but so far I am only observing corrective movements rather than a clear shift in trend. I see that if I rely on the historical daily patterns, the current positioning of the CCI oscillator, MACD, and stochastics is beginning to suggest that a reversal may be approaching and that the ongoing daily downtrend could be nearing its end. I consider it possible that the market may open with a slight decline toward the 1.3685 area, but I still note that the overall technical picture is gradually starting to lean toward a bullish scenario. I believe that if this developing pattern plays out as expected, a reversal could form and the subsequent upward wave could theoretically extend toward the highs of the current downward wave. I also recognize, however, that there are very strong resistance levels overhead, starting near 1.3860, which are reinforced by dynamic resistance from the EMA65 and EMA200, making this zone particularly difficult for buyers to overcome. I see the next resistance at 1.3957 as equally strong, although it lacks nearby structural support, and I am currently only planning this potential growth phase up to that level. I find the four-hour timeframe especially unclear, as I do not see any convincing signals favoring either direction at the moment. I observe that the pair is stuck between the EMA20 and EMA65, and I note that the same oscillators, especially the CCI, are still hinting at a possible minor pullback toward the support areas at 1.3685 and 1.3650. I consider the 1.3650 level to be a critical benchmark, as a break below it would likely confirm a continuation of the broader downward trend. I also understand that, for now, the only meaningful bullish scenario would involve a breakout from the descending channel around 1.3786 and 1.3814. I acknowledge that such a breakout will be difficult to achieve because these levels are additionally reinforced by the EMA200. I identify 1.3922 as the only clear upside target at this stage, but I do not find this scenario convincing yet. I remain cautious because I am unsure how the market will react to the latest developments related to Venezuela. I conclude that, for the time being, the most sensible approach is simply to monitor the key levels of 1.3695 and 1.3650 and wait for clearer confirmation from price action.