FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I see this asset trading in a clearly flat structure, and I note that the current price around 4373 reflects ongoing uncertainty rather than directional conviction. I observe that sell targets on the hourly chart are well-defined, and I consider the Fibonacci extensions at 4188, 4057, and 3861 to be technically justified and realistically achievable under sustained bearish pressure. I interpret the broader downward trend as still intact, even though I acknowledge that today’s price action shows a sharp northward correction. I remain bearish as long as I see price holding below the hourly moving average near 4405, because I treat this level as a key dynamic resistance. I expect a test of this moving average, and I plan to look for a bearish reaction there in order to participate in a continuation move lower. I focus particularly on the potential break of the 4293 low, which I believe would confirm renewed downside momentum. I also take into account that the hourly indicators previously reversed, triggering an 85-point jump in GOLD, and I see this as evidence that speculative flows are still reacting strongly to technical signals rather than fundamentals. I acknowledge the scenario in which buyers defend the 4333–4420 range during the European session and attempt to extend the rally toward 4437 or even 4464 during the US session, and I accept that such a move could open the door to further upside tomorrow.

I also weigh an alternative scenario, and I consider it more probable given the current structure, where sellers regain control and push GOLD back toward the 4372 intraday support. I believe that a sustained move below this level would favor a renewed southward impulse, especially since I see the four-hour indicators still sitting below zero despite the morning rally. I therefore prioritize the bearish reversal scenario, unless I see price firmly hold above the 4400 resistance from Friday. I recognize that a clear break and consolidation above 4400 would likely flip the four-hour technical picture to bullish and attract fresh buying interest. I question whether the market is preparing for a straight-up rally toward a renewed high near 4545, or whether I am simply witnessing a corrective leg within a broader downtrend. I note that during the Asian session price tested the hourly moving average and closed with a near-pinbar, and I interpret this as hesitation rather than confirmation of strength. I remain inclined toward a decline, and I continue to target a potential breakout below last week’s low at 4273. I mention that I briefly bought earlier and took profit near 4405, but I currently see no valid entry within my system. I prefer to wait patiently, and I plan to sell if a clear signal appears, locking partial profit near 4290 and holding the remainder for a sharper drop toward the 4140–4120 zone, especially given the recent Venezuela-related news shock.