FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/CHF

I would like to start with a warm January greeting to everyone as I turn my attention to the current technical picture on USDCHF and reassess the situation from my own analytical perspective. I am observing that USDCHF remains within a buying zone on the H4 timeframe, although I clearly see that price has already reacted to the 0.8017 resistance level and is currently pausing, which suggests hesitation from buyers at this stage. I note that the penultimate H4 candle formed a bullish engulfing pattern, and I consider this signal to still be active, meaning I continue to allow for further upward correction within the broader structure. I believe that buying pressure can reasonably persist down to the 0.7986 area, and I am prepared to monitor this zone closely for a reaction. I assume that if price shows a clear bounce from 0.7986, selling pressure may re-emerge and drive the pair lower toward the 0.7849 support level, which I view as a significant downside target. I also acknowledge that price could reach this support even without a bounce if I see a decisive break below the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, which would signal a transition into a selling zone. I would treat a confirmed break of the 0.7903 support level as an important bearish trigger, reinforcing my bearish continuation scenario. I believe that safer buying opportunities will only appear after a confident breakout above the 0.7986–0.8017 resistance range, as this would indicate renewed bullish control. I expect that if 0.8017 is also broken and sustained, I would then shift my bias toward higher price targets. I observe that the CCI indicator on the H4 chart is gradually exiting the oversold area and turning upward, which aligns with the bullish engulfing pattern I identified earlier. I interpret this CCI behavior as confirmation that a corrective rollback may still develop, especially since the indicator has not yet reached extreme overbought levels. I therefore remain cautious but flexible, as I balance short-term bullish correction signals with the broader risk of a bearish continuation.

I am analyzing the USDCHF currency pair on the daily timeframe, where I clearly see that the market remains in a neutral state without a dominant long-term direction. I observe that since mid-summer of last year, price has been moving within a broad range, and I recognize that this sideways structure is still intact today. I note that the MACD indicator remains in the lower selling zone, but I also see that it has already crossed above its signal line, which suggests a weakening of bearish momentum. I recall that the price increase in the second half of October was largely expected, and I attribute this move primarily to the overall positioning of the US dollar against major currencies. I believe that at that time the US dollar was structurally prepared for strengthening across the market, which supported bullish scenarios in several pairs. I specifically remember that the EURUSD pair was clearly positioned for a decline, and I see this as a strong indirect argument in favor of USDCHF growth during that period. I identify a broken reversal pattern on the chart, namely a descending wedge, which I interpret as an important technical signal. I see that the breakout from this wedge led to a modest upward move, followed by a pullback that tested the broken structure, after which growth resumed. I consider the entire downward correction that lasted until mid-October as the second wave before a potential third bullish wave. I now recognize, however, that the anticipated third wave failed to fully develop and was effectively truncated. I observe that price dropped sharply at the beginning of November, recovered again in the second half of the month, and at that point appeared ready for further growth. I admit that this expectation was not fulfilled, as price stalled once more and slipped slightly lower in December. I summarize this behavior as a sawtooth movement visible even on the higher weekly timeframe. I construct an ascending channel and note that price temporarily broke below it, triggering selling activity. I pay close attention to the bullish divergence on the CCI indicator, which I interpret as a warning that the decline was unlikely to extend further. I then see price returning back inside the channel, which increases my confidence in a gradual upward scenario. I expect slow growth toward the August 1, 2025 peak, while I also define the November 5 high as a nearer and more realistic target. I finally align this outlook with my view that EURUSD remains oriented toward further decline, which continues to support my bullish bias on USDCHF.