FX.co ★ Konnect2fx | USD/JPY

Well, from my perspective as I analyze the chart, I find the bearish case is becoming increasingly difficult for me to defend. I am looking at the price action, and I see that the resistance at 158.20, which I recognize as the top of the 5/8 Murray channel on the USDJPY hourly chart, is currently under heavy and sustained pressure. I believe there is a very high probability—one that I must acknowledge—that the US dollar bulls will ultimately manage to break through this significant technical barrier. I want to emphasize that, for me, a true breakout will only be confirmed once I see a full hourly candle close definitively above this 158.20 level. I anticipate that, in this scenario, I would then expect us to continue rising toward the next clear obstacle, which I have identified at 158.59, a level I understand to represent a 6/8 rotation reversal point. I am carefully observing the momentum, and I must admit that the current buying pressure leads me to think a bullish resolution is the more likely path forward from here, as the structure I see forming does not currently favor the downside

However, I feel I must also rigorously consider the alternative, bearish perspective to ensure my analysis is complete. I note that for any meaningful bearish reversal to gain credibility from my point of view, I would first need to see a sustained return of trading below the critical support level at 157.81. I understand that only a decisive break and acceptance below this floor would, in my assessment, create the necessary conditions for a potential downward reversal to begin. I am watching this level closely, as a failure to hold here could invalidate the immediate bullish breakout thesis I am leaning toward. Until I witness that specific price action, however, I maintain that the bears are struggling to find traction. I currently see little point in trying to force a bearish narrative against this upward pressure, and I think attempting to do so at these levels would be premature. I am therefore positioning my outlook on the expectation of further upside, unless the market itself shows me a clear and decisive change of character by conquering that key support. For now, my focus remains on the 158.20 test and the potential follow-through toward 158.59 that I am projecting.