FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I see gold continuing to trade within a broader long-term uptrend, and I note that the overall wave structure is still forming higher despite the growing internal contradictions. I observe that the MACD remains in the upper buy zone, and I recognize that it has already slipped below its signal line, which immediately raises caution for me. I remember that the contracting triangle was previously broken to the upside, and I clearly saw how price stalled for several sessions, accumulating positions and absorbing liquidity. I believe that sellers were quietly building larger positions during that pause, and I think this imbalance explains why price later resumed its upward crawl rather than collapsing immediately. I expected a breakout of the upper boundary, and I acknowledge that this scenario played out exactly as anticipated. I then observed a classic seasonal reaction, where positions were locked in around the New Year, triggering a sharp corrective pullback. I note that this pullback reached the horizontal support at 4355 and even marginally pierced it, which for me signals aggressive profit-taking rather than trend reversal. I also see that the ascending trendline remains intact, and I recognize that price has so far failed to break decisively below it. I notice that some rebound has already occurred, but I remain uneasy because I see a massive bearish divergence on the MACD. I also identify a rising wedge reversal pattern, and I clearly see that price has already descended toward its lower boundary. I admit that this creates a contradictory technical picture, where the trend is still bullish, yet the reversal signals are strong and mature. I believe that buying at these levels is increasingly dangerous, especially given the extended rally of the last two years. I remind myself that gold has risen aggressively throughout 2024 and 2025, and I think a major technical correction is no longer just possible but inevitable. I expect further attempts to grind higher within the wedge, and I assume buyers will continue accumulating in anticipation of trend continuation. I also expect that once this accumulation phase is complete, the market will be dragged lower, breaking the wedge and triggering a broader corrective phase. I firmly believe that price cannot rise indefinitely, even though long-term demand for metals remains strong. I am convinced that gold will eventually renew its historical highs, but I am equally convinced that a prolonged pullback must occur first. I prefer to wait for that pullback as an opportunity rather than chasing late-stage upside momentum, and I consciously choose to skip trades where risk outweighs reward.

I focus primarily on execution and risk management, and I deliberately ignore signals where the entry is too far from a key level. I know that wide stop-losses do not fit my money management rules, and I refuse to enter trades where the potential loss exceeds the realistic profit. I recall how on Friday evening gold broke above 4480, and I saw the hourly candle close near 4490 with 4500 directly ahead. I calculated that my stop-loss would be around 1200 points, and although this technically fit my MM, I saw that less than 1000 points of upside remained to resistance, which made the trade unattractive. I admit that I never know how price will react at psychological levels, and I accept that it could just as easily spike above 4500 and reverse sharply. I apply the same logic to the current situation, where I see gold breaking below 4600 and trading near 4595. I am not yet confident in this breakout, and I am waiting for confirmation from the next candle close. I plan to sell only if price consolidates below 4600, targeting 4550, and I plan to buy only if price reclaims and holds above 4600, targeting 4650. I am aware that gold often moves impulsively overnight without pullbacks, and I seriously consider staying out of the market altogether during such conditions. I now see that upward momentum has clearly weakened after the 4630.29 high, and I observe a sequence of lower highs forming in the 4580–4590 zone. I note that the EMA20 has crossed below the EMA50, and I see the MACD remaining negative while RSI holds in the 30–40 range. I acknowledge that oversold conditions exist, but I see no convincing reversal signals yet. I interpret the current structure as a pause within a decline rather than a true rebound. I also recognize a double top on the H1–M15 charts, with the neckline near 4600 now acting as resistance. I expect the pattern target at 4560–4550 to be reached, and I accept that this aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. I do not view this as a long-term trend reversal, but I clearly see it as a necessary correction after an overheated rally. I remain biased toward cautious selling or staying flat, and I will only abandon this view if price regains and holds above the 4600–4620 zone with strong volume.