FX.co ★ absh kaat | EUR/USD

I am focusing my attention on the second chart where I am clearly observing the daily candlesticks, and I am finding it very difficult to justify taking a position against the bullish engulfing candlestick, especially because I am seeing that it formed at a technically correct and meaningful area on the chart. I am interpreting this bullish engulfing pattern as a strong sign of buyer commitment, and I am acknowledging that the context in which it appeared adds significant weight to its validity, since I am seeing it emerge near a support zone that previously attracted demand. I am therefore inclined to wait patiently for the continuation of the rally, as I believe that reacting prematurely could result in missing a larger bullish move that is still unfolding. I am, however, also aware that markets rarely move in a straight line, and I am considering the possibility that we could still revisit the recent lows tomorrow despite the broader bullish implication of the engulfing pattern. I am factoring in the role of the moving averages, and I am noticing that price action relative to these averages could still generate a sell signal candlestick in the short term. I am viewing this potential sell signal not as a trend reversal, but rather as a corrective reversal within a broader bullish structure that remains intact. I am reminding myself that corrective moves are a natural part of trending markets, and I am seeing this as an opportunity for the market to reset before resuming its upward trajectory. I am also paying close attention to the slope and alignment of the moving averages, as I am seeing that they may temporarily act as dynamic resistance, encouraging short-term sellers to step in. I am cautious not to overreact to a single bearish daily candle if it forms, because I am aware that such a candle could simply represent profit-taking rather than genuine distribution. I am integrating price action and moving-average behavior into a single narrative, and I am concluding that any near-term weakness would likely be corrective in nature. I am also considering market sentiment, and I am sensing that bullish confidence has not yet been invalidated, even if a temporary pullback occurs. I am planning to monitor how the market behaves during any decline, as I am especially interested in whether sellers show impulsive strength or whether downside movement remains shallow and overlapping. I am convinced that the reaction at the lows will be far more important than the mere appearance of a sell signal candlestick. I am therefore choosing patience over anticipation, and I am allowing the market to reveal whether buyers will defend key levels once again. I am maintaining a bullish bias overall, but I am keeping my expectations flexible, understanding that a corrective reversal driven by moving averages does not necessarily contradict the bullish engulfing signal I am respecting.

I am looking closely at the last major growth wave, and I am clearly seeing that the rebound originated from the 50% correction level, which immediately draws my attention from a wave-structure perspective. I am interpreting this reaction from the 50% retracement as a technically healthy response, and I am considering that within classical wave theory this movement can represent the end of a second corrective wave and the potential beginning of a third major upward wave. I am emphasizing that this interpretation is not based on a single impulsive candle alone, but on the broader structure that is forming across multiple timeframes. I am noting that from the 50% level at 1.16378, the market did not produce just a random impulse, but rather a structured and confident bullish push that suggests the presence of strong buyers. I am also comparing this move with the impulse that previously formed from the 38.2% correction level, and I am seeing clear similarities in momentum and behavior, which reinforces my bullish structural bias. I am particularly focused on the daily timeframe, where I am observing a bullish engulfing candlestick, and I am treating this signal as highly significant because it distinguishes this impulse from others that were visible only on the H4 chart. I am acknowledging that a daily bullish engulfing candle carries more weight, and I am using it as confirmation that buyers were willing to absorb selling pressure decisively at key levels. I am also aware that after the local rally, the market has fallen sharply, but I am not interpreting this move as abnormal or alarming. I am instead viewing this decline as a normal corrective reaction within an emerging bullish structure, and I am reminding myself that strong trends often include sharp pullbacks that test trader conviction. I am evaluating the depth and speed of this pullback, and I am concluding that it remains well within acceptable technical limits. I am therefore maintaining a constructive outlook as long as critical support levels remain intact. I am stressing the importance of risk management, and I am advising that if I choose to buy, I must calculate my risks carefully beyond the 1.16176 level. I am treating this level as a clear invalidation point for my bullish scenario, and I am accepting that if this level is broken, there is no technical justification for staying in the market. I am fully aware that a breakdown below 1.16176 could open the way for a deeper decline toward 1.15978 or even lower levels. I am choosing not to emotionally defend a bullish bias in that scenario, because I understand that the market would be signaling that my wave interpretation is premature or incorrect. I am therefore balancing optimism with discipline, and I am allowing price action to dictate whether this structure evolves into a true third wave or fails into a deeper corrective phase.