FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I consider GBPUSD to be a difficult and nervous instrument, and I personally find it too twitchy to trade aggressively without confirmation. I observed that yesterday the pair managed to consolidate above the EMA200, but I also noticed that today it has already slipped back below this key dynamic level, which I interpret as a clear sign that selling pressure has resumed. I initially identified the 1.3448 area as an attractive zone for potential shorts, but I questioned whether the market would provide a clean pullback to allow safe participation. I recognize that price could easily fall straight down without any correction, but I also acknowledge that the market often prefers to rebalance before continuing a directional move. I expect Asian session participants to attempt a push higher to relieve short-term oversold conditions, while I believe European traders are more likely to use that liquidity to press the pair lower again. I therefore conclude that selling from the current mid-range price is not an optimal strategy, and I prefer to wait patiently for a corrective move before aligning with the broader bearish impulse. I remain cautious due to the presence of high-impact macroeconomic news affecting multiple currencies today, and I understand that elevated volatility can distort technical structures and invalidate premature entries. I emphasize to myself the importance of strict risk management under these conditions, especially given that GBPUSD tends to exaggerate intraday moves. I note that on the H1 chart, price is currently trading below the 200-period moving average near 1.3476, and I see this as short-term bearish confirmation rather than a reversal signal. I also observe that the H4 chart confirms this picture, as price remains below the 200-period moving average there as well. I identify resistance levels at 1.3504, 1.3542, and 1.3599, and I treat these as potential zones where sellers could re-enter the market. I mark support at 1.3409, 1.3352, and 1.3314, and I expect price to probe these levels if bearish momentum accelerates. I consider a decline toward 1.3409 to be the most immediate and technically justified scenario, while I acknowledge that a temporary rally above the H1 EMA200 toward the 1.3558 area cannot be ruled out.

I further analyze the broader structure and conclude that the market is currently trapped in a wide sideways range, which I clearly identified by drawing trendlines across the dominant zigzag highs and lows. I recognize that price is presently hovering near the midpoint of this range, and I firmly believe that opening trades from the middle of a flat structure is statistically unfavorable. I therefore decide to remain flat until price reaches one of the extremes, where risk-to-reward conditions improve significantly. I also notice that within this wider sideways range, a narrower ascending channel has formed, suggesting short-term bullish corrections inside a broader neutral-to-bearish context. I observe that the most recent test occurred at the lower boundary of this channel, which leads me to expect a push toward resistance near 1.3570 before the next decisive move. I analyze the 100-period moving average and see that it is trending upward at a shallow angle, which I interpret as modest bullish sentiment rather than strong trend conviction. I examine the 18-period moving average and note that it remains below the key moving average, signaling underlying selling pressure despite short-term attempts to rise. I evaluate the Ichimoku Cloud and see that it is currently bearish in coloration, but I also notice that forward projections are beginning to shift toward bullish tones, suggesting a possible transition phase. I confirm that momentum and basement indicators are gradually aligning for a corrective northward move, but I do not confuse this with a trend reversal. I strongly believe that the inability of GBPUSD to decisively break and hold above 1.34 increases the probability of a downside breakout toward the 1.33 liquidity zone. I expect that level to act as a magnet for stops, and I consider it a necessary test before any sustainable bullish continuation can develop. I remain skeptical of the widespread belief that the dollar will automatically strengthen due to political narratives, and I remind myself that geopolitical shocks often weaken the dollar instead of strengthening it. I conclude that both bullish and bearish scenarios remain valid, but I personally prefer to see a deeper correction toward 1.33 before committing to long positions, and until that happens, I remain patient, disciplined, and flat.