FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I am analyzing EUR/USD primarily on the H1 timeframe, where I clearly see that the pair is trading below the daily opening level of 1.16459 and also below the daily Pivot level around 1.1646, which immediately sets a bearish intraday tone. I note that the price is positioned below the MA72 trend line, a zone where I usually observe volume unloading, and this further reinforces my bearish bias. I see that the main technical indicators are pointing south, and I interpret this as confirmation that sellers remain in control. I consider 1.1615 to be the key intraday fork, because above this level I expect a corrective rise toward 1.1625 and potentially 1.1645, while below it I expect renewed selling pressure toward 1.1592 and possibly 1.1575. I observe that EUR/USD is also trading below the monthly Pivot level of 1.1710, below the weekly Pivot level of 1.1663, and below the daily Pivot, and I interpret this confluence as a strong structural signal of southern sentiment. I recognize 1.1630 as a resistance level and 1.1592 as the first meaningful support, which aligns well with the current price behavior. I note that the pair already fell to 1.1595 earlier and then rebounded to 1.1615, which I see as a technical pullback rather than a change in trend. I observe that the moving average on the H4 chart is above the price and sloping downward, and I take this as clear confirmation that the broader trend remains bearish. I expect the price to continue its downward movement overall, but I also anticipate a short-term rise toward the 1.1623–1.1635 zone before sellers re-enter the market. I see no convincing reversal signals in the indicators, and I interpret the current movement as a pause within an established downtrend rather than the start of a bullish phase.

I am looking at EUR/USD across multiple timeframes, and I am convinced that the bearish trend is well established and structurally sound, with no meaningful signs of a reversal. I note that since August the pair has fallen from around 1.1892, shedding nearly 2800 points, and I see this as evidence of persistent and methodical selling pressure rather than emotional panic. I observe on the daily chart that the EMAs are perfectly aligned in bearish order, MACD is deeply negative, and RSI is hovering around 35, which tells me that the trend is strong but not yet exhausted. I believe that the fundamentals continue to weigh on the euro, as I see the ECB maintaining a dovish stance while the eurozone economy, especially Germany’s industrial sector, struggles to regain momentum. I acknowledge that the US also faces serious debt and structural problems, but I believe that relative yield support and capital flows still favor the dollar in the medium term. I recognize that on H4 and H1 the market structure remains identical, with descending waves and weak rebound attempts that fail quickly. I note that on M15 the market is oversold, with RSI near 25, but I do not see this as a reason to buy, only as a warning not to chase shorts without a pullback. I define resistance around 1.1680–1.1700 as a selling zone and see supports at 1.1600, 1.1550, and later 1.1500 and 1.1440, where the daily EMA200 could act as a reaction level. I plan to sell rebounds toward 1.1680–1.1700, sell breakdowns below 1.1600, and hold positions below 1.1550 toward 1.1440 while monitoring price behavior closely. I also remain aware of upcoming German data and geopolitical factors, and I accept that short-term rallies are possible, but I continue to view them as corrective moves within a dominant bearish trend rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.