FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I don’t really understand the confusion around the so-called $500 drop, and I want to clarify that when I talk about such numbers, I am not predicting a straight fall from the current price but rather outlining a scenario-based correction framework. I am looking at gold as a market that moves in stages, not in single emotional impulses, and I am using round psychological levels, channel boundaries, Fibonacci projections, and volatility ranges to derive these numbers. I am aware that price could theoretically go to $4100, and I am not denying that possibility, but I am saying that at the current moment I do not see the conditions for such a move to happen immediately. I am observing that the rise from $4600 to $4675 and higher is currently paused, and I am treating this pause not as a trend reversal but as a corrective phase within a broader bullish structure. I am assuming that if the rise is temporarily cancelled, then the requirements for a strong continuation upward are reduced, and I am therefore allowing for a controlled pullback rather than a collapse. I am using each major zero level as a potential anchor point for my “100% decline” measurement, and I am projecting targets from those levels rather than inventing random figures. I am also factoring in time, because I believe the current decline is strictly linked to the cancellation or postponement of specific macro and geopolitical drivers, and I am assuming that these drivers could resume within a week. I am therefore allocating roughly a weekly correction range, which I see as normal market behavior and not as a trend-defining move. I am noticing that many technical and psychological factors are converging around the $4500 area, and I am treating this zone as a magnet rather than a guaranteed bottom. I am fully aware that market sentiment is fragile today, and I am also aware that gold does not fully trust the old narrative drivers anymore, but I am equally convinced that there are no immediate catalysts strong enough to cause panic selling. I am therefore maintaining the view that price may still need to fall, even if it does so reluctantly, heavily, and without enthusiasm.

I am starting my structured analytical outlook from the H4 timeframe, because I believe it best reflects the current balance between trend and correction. I am seeing that an ascending channel has been formed, and I am observing that gold is trading near the upper boundary of this channel around 4615, which statistically increases the probability of a pullback. I am expecting buyers to make one more attempt toward 4670–4680, and I am viewing this area as a logical zone to lock in long profits and initiate medium-term shorts toward the lower boundary of the channel at 4550–4500. I am then shifting my focus to the H1 timeframe, where I am noticing that although the broader structure remains bullish, price has already entered a corrective phase. I am identifying 4570 as a key intraday support where I would expect sellers to take profits and buyers to step back in. I am aligning this with the 100-fib support around 4548.68, which I see as an ideal accumulation zone for trend continuation. I am still expecting gold to reach 4700 and potentially higher, and I am treating that level not as a final top but as a waypoint toward much higher long-term targets, possibly even 5000. I am also realistic enough to acknowledge that a move to 5000 would almost certainly be followed by a deep correction, possibly below 4000, but I am explicitly stating that such a move is not relevant for immediate trading decisions. I am monitoring the XamaSystem hourly indicator around 4609, and I am watching for either a bearish breakout toward the 4578 moving average or a bullish rebound from it. I am prepared to buy cautiously on a confirmed reversal and to sell aggressively if price consolidates below the moving average. I am concluding that from 2500 onward, the market has only given growth signals, and I am accepting that fear kept me out of some of the best trades, but I am now committed to trading signals, not emotions, and to letting the market confirm every next step.