FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/JPY

I am indeed inclined to agree that heading south currently looks like the most logical scenario, and I am basing this conclusion primarily on the trading dynamics I have observed over the past two sessions. I am closely analyzing the USDJPY H4 chart, where I clearly see a strong and technically justified rebound from the resistance level at 159.37, which corresponds to the 8/8 Murrey level and has once again proven its relevance. I initially anticipated a corrective pullback toward the 158.59 support area, aligned with the stop reversal 7/8 level, and I was mentally prepared for price to stabilize or consolidate around that zone. I did not, however, expect such confident bearish momentum that would push the pair decisively below this support, which significantly changes my short-term outlook. I am now considering the increased probability of a deeper corrective move, with price potentially extending toward the 157.81 level, which aligns with the rotation reversal 6/8 and represents the next technically justified downside target. I am interpreting this movement as a sign that sellers are currently more aggressive and that bullish pressure is insufficient to immediately reclaim lost ground. I am also noting that the structure of the recent candles suggests sustained selling interest rather than a simple stop-hunt or false breakout. I am aware that this downside scenario remains corrective in nature within the broader bullish context, but I am treating it seriously due to the clean break of interim support. I am clearly defining invalidation for this bearish correction, and I believe that US dollar bulls must reclaim and firmly break above 159.37 to negate the current bearish bias. I would only consider renewed upside targets into the overbought zone if such a breakout occurs with strong momentum and confirmation. I am therefore maintaining a cautious and flexible stance, as for now the market is signaling that further southern movement remains the path of least resistance.

I am greeting you, colleague, and I am fully aware that the northern path for USD/JPY technically remains open, even though I personally do not expect the market to attempt a breakout toward fresh highs in the near term. I am much more inclined toward a corrective or even developing bearish scenario, and I am basing this view on what I currently observe on the daily timeframe using indicator-based analysis. I am seeing that the MA100 continues to slope upward at roughly a 20-degree angle, and I acknowledge that this technically reflects a generally positive weekly buying sentiment rather than outright weakness. I am also noting that the Bollinger Bands are positioned above the key moving average, which again reinforces the idea that bullish sentiment still dominates the broader weekly structure. I am paying particular attention to the fact that all three Bollinger Bands have aligned and are trending north at approximately a 30-degree angle, and I recognize that this alignment typically supports continued buying pressure. I am, however, placing greater analytical weight on the Semafor signal, as I see that the market is trading under a global sell signal located in a very technical and psychologically important zone. I am interpreting the candle’s excursion beyond the upper Bollinger Band as a sign of exhaustion rather than strength, and I believe it clearly shows that bulls have already fulfilled their primary objectives. I am convinced that this type of price behavior often precedes distribution, where buyers gradually exit positions and leave room for sellers to step in. I am also considering that the absence of an immediate decline is likely due to the current lack of active bears rather than renewed bullish conviction. I am viewing the market as suspended in a temporary vacuum where buyers are no longer aggressive, yet sellers have not fully committed. I am therefore patiently waiting for clear confirmation in the form of a sustained price fixation below the 158.10 support level. I am confident that such a breakdown would validate my bearish expectations and signal that the long-awaited bearish participants have finally entered the market.