FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/JPY

I observe that the euro, much like the pound, has come under noticeable pressure from the Japanese yen, and I interpret the resulting pullback in EURJPY toward the 184.00 area as a technically justified reaction rather than an outright trend change. I note that if the price manages to consolidate below 184.00, I see a clear technical window opening for sellers to extend the decline toward 183.60, then 183.20, and potentially 182.80, while I also recognize that a firm consolidation below 182.80 would expose deeper downside targets at 182.40 and even 182.00. I emphasize that I do not consider it appropriate to talk about a full bearish reversal at this stage, because I clearly see that the broader uptrend remains intact and I am fully aware that pullbacks in yen crosses are often sharp, deep, and emotionally misleading. I keep in mind that a rebound from any of these highlighted support zones could easily reignite bullish momentum, including from the current levels, provided the market fails to achieve a stable consolidation below 184.00. I define the potential upside scenario by stating that if the price holds above this level, I would then expect bullish targets at 184.40, 184.75, 185.15, and 185.55, with the possibility of new highs developing thereafter. I interpret the current decline as a corrective phase within the daily uptrend, and I therefore believe that the earlier false breakout above the upper boundary of the daily range near 184.872 should ideally remain limited above the local support minimum around 183.523. I initially considered entering long positions from the dynamic support formed by heavy moving averages on the H1 chart, where I observed a convergence resembling a golden cross, supported by strengthening MACD and Stochastic signals. I also understand, however, that the appearance of a re-low would suggest that this correction may not yet be sufficient for the bulls, implying that a deeper pullback could be required before the trend can sustainably continue. I therefore explain that I have chosen to put my immediate buy plans on hold and instead prepare to reinforce long exposure at lower and more attractive levels, preferably after confirmation from higher timeframes. I remain focused on the idea that patience is essential here, because chasing price in a corrective phase often leads to suboptimal entries. I conclude this part of my analysis by stressing that the broader technical structure still favors buyers, but only if the market respects the key support levels that define the integrity of the daily trend.

I analyze the D1 chart and clearly see an upward-building wave structure, and I interpret the consistent breaking of prior highs as evidence that the dominant bullish trend is still in control despite the current correction. I note that the MACD remains in the upper buy zone while sitting below its signal line, which I read as a pause within strength rather than a definitive sell signal. I strongly believe that USDJPY, which is also trending higher, is the primary driver of this movement, and I acknowledge that without such strength in the major pair, the EURJPY rally would likely not have been so persistent given its nature as a cross. I assess that as long as USDJPY continues to push beyond its 2024 highs and EURUSD avoids a sharp decline, further upside in EURJPY remains structurally inevitable. I recognize that many earlier bearish divergences have already been invalidated or weakly realized, and although a new bearish divergence is forming, I do not yet see sufficient price confirmation to treat it as a major threat. I point out that the absence of clear resistance overhead means that the eventual upside extent depends largely on the behavior of the underlying major pairs rather than on internal resistance levels. I recall that the December decline was capped near the horizontal support at 181.56, after which the pair moved sideways before resuming its advance, and I use this as evidence that sellers currently lack the strength to reverse the trend. I firmly state that selling against this movement makes little sense to me unless a clear mirror level forms, turning prior support into resistance at the edge of the rally. I also consider shorter timeframes, where I see the price trading below the daily pivot at 184.752, and I accept that further downside toward 183.469 or even 182.676 remains possible in the short term. I still view these declines as corrective opportunities rather than trend-ending moves, unless the market decisively breaks and holds below the deeper weekly and daily supports. I conclude by explaining that while I acknowledge the risk of a larger correction in the future, especially given long-term divergences on monthly charts, my current bias remains to buy pullbacks rather than sell rallies, until the market clearly proves otherwise.