FX.co ★ absh kaat | GBP/USD

I analyze yesterday’s trading session on the GBP/USD pair and clearly recognize that it unfolded very successfully for sellers, confirming the strength of the bearish scenario. I observe that the sustained downward movement allowed the price not only to approach but also to decisively break through the key support level at 1.3390, which I consider a technically important event. I interpret this breakdown as a sign that bearish pressure remains dominant and that buyers were unable to defend a previously meaningful price zone. I pay close attention to volume dynamics and note that volumes continued to rise during the decline, which I see as confirmation that the move was supported by real market participation rather than being a random fluctuation. I interpret these elevated volumes as evidence of fresh positions being opened by large market participants, primarily on the sell side. I believe that the involvement of major bears significantly increases the probability of further dollar strengthening in the near term. I consider the overall market context and conclude that the current structure still favors continuation rather than reversal. I remain focused on selling priorities, as I do not yet see sufficient technical or volume-based arguments for a sustainable bullish recovery. I expect that the previously broken level at 1.3390 will now change its role and act as resistance rather than support, in line with classic technical analysis principles. I anticipate that the price may stage a corrective rebound toward this zone, driven by short-term profit-taking or minor buying interest. I plan to treat such a rebound as an opportunity to reassess short positions rather than as a signal to abandon the bearish bias. I continue to view the broader trend as downward and believe that any upward movement at this stage is likely to be limited in scope and duration. I set my expectations for a renewed decline after the retest of resistance, as selling pressure is likely to re-emerge at that level. I identify the nearest local support around 1.3350 as a realistic downside target, given current momentum and market structure. I conclude that as long as the price remains below 1.3390 and volumes stay supportive of the move, the bearish scenario remains valid and preferable for positioning.

Greetings, colleague! I view the daily GBP/USD chart through the lens of indicator-based analysis and clearly see that the broader market sentiment remains bearish despite the current pause in directional movement. I interpret this pause not as a reversal, but as a necessary phase of consolidation where the market accumulates volume before the next impulsive leg. I note that the pair is presently inclined to move north in the short term, essentially to regain balance and allow indicators to reset after the recent sell-off. I consider this upward movement to be corrective in nature rather than trend-changing, and I treat it as a technical retracement within a dominant bearish structure. I observe that the MA100 is moving strictly parallel to the horizontal axis, and I read this as a classic signal of flat sentiment on a weekly scale, indicating the absence of a strong directional driver at the moment. I also pay close attention to the Bollinger Bands, where I see that the price is not aligned with the central moving average, reinforcing the idea of a sideways market phase. I notice that all three Bollinger Bands are moving parallel to each other and parallel to the floor, which I interpret as a textbook example of volatility compression and balance between buyers and sellers. I apply the pendulum principle here and recognize that since the price has reached the lower boundary of the established range, a rebound toward the upper boundary is statistically justified. I remain aware, however, that the market is still trading under the influence of a global sell signal from the Semafor indicator, which I consider highly significant given its precise technical placement. I recall that the prior bullish push managed to force a candle above the upper Bollinger Band, and I interpret this as the final exhaustion phase of buyers who have already fulfilled their objectives. I therefore expect that the current buy signal from the lower Bollinger Band will only drive a corrective rise toward the resistance zone near 1.3455. I plan for this level to act as a decision point, where selling pressure is likely to re-emerge. I ultimately maintain a bearish bias and anticipate that once this corrective rise is completed, the pair will resume its downward trajectory in alignment with the prevailing trend.