FX.co ★ Jackroay | CL/Crude Oil

I begin my higher-timeframe assessment by stating that I am focusing on the weekly chart, where I clearly see that after the rebound from the local high near 95.00 I am observing a persistent decline that has shaped a descending price channel, and I note that at the current quotation around 59.22 I am seeing price stabilize only temporarily inside this bearish corridor while I remain convinced that the broader structure still favors sellers in the medium term. I emphasize that I am paying close attention to the previous weekly candle because I interpret the pin bar close as a technical warning, and I believe that if I see the current weekly candle closing red I can reasonably conclude that I am witnessing confirmation of bearish pressure, which leads me to say that I am comfortable projecting a continuation toward 58.00 and potentially lower, provided that I carefully track the influence of inventories, political decisions, and geopolitical tensions that I know can disrupt even the cleanest chart structure. I stress that I am not ignoring fundamentals, because I understand that when I factor in rising U.S. crude inventories, unpredictable policy signals from Donald Trump, and instability across Venezuela and the Middle East, I must accept that volatility can intensify, yet I still maintain that from a technical perspective I am justified in framing my medium-term bias as bearish from the current zone. I explain that when I shift my attention toward the hourly timeframe I am deliberately seeking tactical confirmation, and I recognize that after the rebound from 62.25 I am identifying a clear price triangle pattern in which I see the market compressing energy, and I acknowledge that the second wave of decline that started after the rejection from 60.80 reinforces my belief that sellers are still controlling momentum. I conclude that I am treating the present price near 59.24 as a workable selling area, and I clarify that I am targeting the support line around 58.50 while I remain prepared to lock in profits there because I expect that even in a bearish trend I will often encounter corrective pullbacks that I must respect to protect my capital.

I continue by stating that I am closely monitoring pivot dynamics because I see that price is trading below the daily pivot FPV at 60.25, and I believe this positioning gives me a structural advantage on the short side, while I also remind myself that if I see a sustained break below MS3 at 58.92 I will immediately shift my attention to deeper objectives such as S3 at 58.60, MN1 Sup C at 57.56, and W1 Sup at 56.62, levels that I consider realistic extensions of the prevailing bearish wave. I explain that I am equally attentive to alternative scenarios, because I know that if I observe a rebound from S3 or a corrective rise from current values I must prepare for a test of the daily pivot again, and I accept that if I see price reclaim 60.25 and move toward yHigh at 60.87 I will have to reassess the strength of sellers, even though I still regard the zone above as corrective rather than impulsive. I clarify that I am mapping upside resistance carefully, and I note that if I witness a breakout above 60.87 I will watch D1 Res at 61.75, R3 at 61.90, and R4 at 62.92, yet I emphasize that I still interpret any such rise as an opportunity to reload shorts rather than a signal of trend reversal. I point out that I am observing a widening sideways structure caused by excess global supply, and I explain that I interpret rising inventories as clear evidence that I am dealing with an imbalance between production and demand, which in my view explains why I continue to see persistent downward pressure and hesitation among buyers. I state that I am incorporating the daily candle behavior into my strategy, and I remark that after I saw price close below half of the 60.25–60.04 zone I immediately set my main sell target toward the full margin zone at 58.15–57.73, because I believe that this area represents the natural magnet for price in the current phase. I finish by explaining that I will only consider initiating new short positions if I see a corrective rise into the 59.85–60.45 range and if I can confirm a reversal pattern, because I insist on aligning my entries with structure, momentum, and confirmation, and I remain disciplined in waiting for the market to come to me rather than chasing price.