FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

I analyze yesterday session as one of the most volatile trading days in recent weeks, and I begin by noting that I am facing a dense calendar of high, medium, and low impact news that directly affects several major currencies, and I understand that this kind of environment requires maximum discipline and emotional control. I remind myself that I must respect risk management more than ever, and I consciously slow down my decision-making because I know that impulsive entries during news-driven volatility often lead to unnecessary losses. I observe that I am witnessing sharp price movement right after the release when price at 157.91, and I admit that I did not expect such a fast reaction when I placed the trade, yet I am satisfied that I managed to secure the first take-profit quickly. I reflect that I am now expecting a phase of consolidation because I recognize that the market rarely continues in a straight line after an explosive impulse, and I remind myself that patience is part of professional trading. I notice that I am seeing price move against the moving averages on the four-hour chart, and I interpret this as a temporary distortion rather than an immediate reversal. I consider that I am dealing with a market that needs time to digest new information, and I accept that a full reversal from 158.3, almost never happens instantly after a major fundamental shock. I visualize two possible scenarios, and I state that I either expect the price to draw the same structure shown in the screenshot or I expect a deeper decline followed by a corrective rollback. I emphasize that I am not forcing a directional bias, and I remain flexible because I know the market can choose either path. I conclude that I am prepared for significant downside potential because I recognize that the yen is trading near historic highs, and I understand that extreme positioning often precedes large corrective movements.

I continue my analysis by recalling the December meeting, and I explain that I clearly remember how the Bank of Japan raised rates while the yen unexpectedly weakened and USDJPY rallied towards 155.10, and I use this memory as a key reference point for my current expectations. I compare today’s candlestick with the one from that meeting, and I acknowledge that I am seeing a similar emotional footprint in the market, even if today’s candle appears larger and more aggressive. I remind myself that I watched price spend almost twelve trading days trapped inside that previous candle before breaking the established extreme, and I realize that markets often repeat behavioral patterns during comparable fundamental events. I hypothesize that I may see today’s session close near the low of the day, and I imagine that the next few sessions could be dominated by sideways consolidation within the current range. I accept that I must not confuse consolidation with weakness, and I tell myself that range trading after strong news is often a sign of institutional accumulation or distribution. I state that I am especially attentive to Monday’s price action, and I explain that I will only start talking seriously about a potential medium-term reversal if I see continuation to the downside after the weekend. I remind myself that confirmation is more important than prediction, and I discipline myself to wait for structure, volume, and reaction at key levels. I admit that I am cautious because I understand how deceptive news-driven moves can be, and I prefer to protect capital rather than chase extended candles. I reaffirm that I am respecting money management rules because I know that survival in Forex depends more on consistency than on one spectacular trade. I conclude that I am viewing this situation as a high-probability learning opportunity, and I remain calm, focused, and prepared to adapt because I understand that the market always rewards patience more than impatience.