FX.co ★ Jackroay | AUD/USD

I am watching AUDUSD on the hourly timeframe and I am clearly seeing an upward formation immediately after the retest of the 0.6673 support line, and I am noting how the rebound started with very aggressive bullish candles that signal strong buying interest from the very bottom. I am observing that the price is now trading close to the resistance zone near 0.6890, and I am convinced that this resistance is not the final ceiling for this bullish wave because I am factoring in the breakout from the 0.6833–0.6853 consolidation range that released fresh momentum to the upside. I am allowing for the possibility that the market may first pull back toward the 0.6853 support line, and I am planning that if I see a clean rebound from that area, I will expect the price to revisit the 0.6890 region again. I am also preparing an alternative scenario in which I acknowledge that if the 0.6833 support is broken with convincing volume, I will anticipate a corrective decline toward the 0.6748 support line, and I am thinking that even from there I could still see a renewed recovery back toward the upper resistance if buyers defend that zone. I am paying close attention to my RSI and MACD indicators, and I am encouraged because I am seeing both indicators synchronously pointing upward with expanding bullish volumes, which I interpret as confirmation that the current impulse still has energy. I am treating the intraday structure as constructive overall, and I am staying flexible because I know that even strong bullish phases often include technical pullbacks before continuation, and I am positioning my expectations accordingly.

I am also stepping back to analyze the daily timeframe because I want to understand the broader context, and I am remembering that for most of 2025 the price moved sideways within narrow daily ranges, which I interpret as a long accumulation phase before a directional breakout. I am recalling how the breakout of the descending resistance line in early December signaled a shift in long-term sentiment, and I am acknowledging that the subsequent rally toward the yearly highs confirmed the bullish wave structure even if the amplitude was slightly smaller than I originally expected. I am watching the MACD on the daily chart rising above its signal line again, and I am interpreting this as renewed medium-term momentum despite the earlier bearish divergence and the downward break of the rising wedge pattern that once warned of a possible decline. I am emphasizing how critical the 0.6669 support zone was, and I am impressed that the market spent many sessions hovering above it without breaking, which I interpret as strong absorption of selling pressure and the trapping of late sellers. I am connecting the explosive rebound to the combination of improving Australian labor data and broad US dollar weakness, and I am recognizing how this fundamental backdrop invalidated a technically perfect bearish setup. I am now focusing on the resistance area around 0.6897, and I am realistic that a downward reaction is possible from slightly higher levels, but I am skeptical that an immediate reversal will unfold without first testing higher targets. I am preparing for the Asian session scenario where a break below 0.6861 and consolidation beneath the signal line could open the way toward 0.6819, and I am planning to use that level as confirmation of seller strength if it breaks. I am ultimately framing this as a market at a crossroads, and I am patiently waiting to see whether continuation or correction will define the next major chapter.