FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I admit that today’s slow news calendar and stable volatility exposed my impatience more than any market movement could. I recognize that I did not lose because of the system but because I abandoned it when there was nothing to do but wait. I see that GBP/USD remains trapped inside the flat range between 1.3716 and 1.3626, and I understand that this compression is building energy for a meaningful breakout. I believe that if the price breaks above 1.3716 with preserved volume structure, the path toward 1.3810 becomes technically justified. I also believe that if the lower boundary at 1.3626 is broken with the same participation, the move toward 1.3532 becomes the logical objective. I notice that despite the internal noise, the broader trend on higher timeframes still points upward. I acknowledge that the earlier false breakout below 1.3642 removed a target but did not change the overall structure. I think the inability to consolidate below 1.3640 is an important clue that sellers are not as dominant as they appear intraday. I understand that today’s statistics, especially ADP data, can inject directional momentum into this compression. I still prefer looking south in the short term, but I am prepared to buy if the price dips below 1.3640 because the stop will be small and the risk well-defined.

I observe on the H1 chart that GBP/USD is trading around 1.3694 and behaving in a confusing, twitchy manner without clear structure. I see candles moving back and forth without conviction, and I recognize this as pre-breakout behavior rather than random chaos. I decide not to sell because the seller’s zone lacks proper volume support and the candle closes are weaker than before. I notice that buyers are gradually adding volume, which tells me the internal pressure is shifting. I plan to wait for the seller’s zone higher around 1.3735–1.3765, where the risk for shorts would be more logical. I remember that the H4 timeframe still shows a selling trend, and I think the market may be drawing a third touch for sellers through a pullback north. I consider the alternative scenario where failure to resume the decline from that zone would confirm continuation of the upward trend. I analyze the weekly chart and see a strong buyer candle that previously broke through, followed by a seller’s tail with volume. I interpret this as a battlefield where buyers are now testing whether that selling pressure can be absorbed. I suspect a small rise will occur first before sellers attempt to regain control. I cannot ignore the possibility that buyers may fully absorb this supply and continue the broader ascen t.