FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I examine the hourly timeframe and I see that EUR/USD is still behaving as if it is in an accumulation phase despite remaining below the Ichimoku cloud, which tells me that bearish momentum is technically dominant for now. I observe that the Stochastic is pointing downward and I interpret this as confirmation that sellers still control short-term pressure. I note how the pair managed to consolidate below the reversal level and how price is now trading around 1.1795 after testing nearby support. I use the classic pivot point as my intraday reference and I expect a continuation toward the first support at 1.1762. I believe that a firm consolidation below this level will open the way for a fresh bearish wave that could extend toward the 1.1675 region. I recall how price moved inside a contracting triangle and how a sharp dollar decline interrupted the pattern before the lower boundary was reached. I apply Fibonacci to the impulsive wave and I see that the 161.8% level was respected, after which selling resumed and pushed the pair back to the 1.1800 zone. I recognize that this level has acted as an accumulation area for several days and I note that even the ECB rate decision failed to move price away from it, which I interpret as a sign of balance between buyers and sellers before a larger move.

I shift my attention to the H4 chart and I see that the broader structure still points to a slow and steady move south despite the narrow range near 1.18. I acknowledge that the dollar is attempting to strengthen even after weaker labor data, and I interpret this as underlying demand for the currency. I admit that I am cautious about selling at current levels, but I still expect a push below 1.1775 to occur. I plan to consider buying only if price fails to hold below that level and shows signs of rejection. I recall how I opened longs after the 1.1784 support test and how partial profits were taken near the 1.1803–1.1811 resistance zone. I recognize that the failure to reach 1.1831 and the return to 1.1780 placed my remaining positions under pressure. I observe that multiple strong supports lie just below current price and I keep 1.1764 in mind as a potential add-on level. I conclude that I expect a brief rally to shake out weak buyers before the pair resumes its gradual decline toward the ascending line and eventually toward the 1.1400 area over the coming weeks.