FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I continue to assess gold from multiple technical angles, and I clearly see that the large shorting opportunity that emerged after the collapse from 5597 has not yet been fully exhausted. I still believe that the market ultimately has the potential to move below 4400, even though we have recently seen several days of corrective growth and localized pullbacks. I interpret this recent upward movement as a temporary correction inside a broader bearish structure, and I now observe that this correction has already been broken, giving way to a renewed localized downward movement. I remind myself that gold remains a classic safe-haven asset, and I understand that demand can return suddenly at any moment, especially during geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty, but for now I am clearly focused on the southern direction. I successfully entered a short position at 4905, and I have already secured profitability by managing the trade actively. I analyze the H4 structure and I see a very logical bearish cycle formed from 5597 down to 4402, which created an impressive $1100 range and renewed several previous local lows. I recognize that the corrective rebound from 4402 was technically justified, and I note how price tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement but failed to continue higher despite multiple attempts. I observe how the decline resumed, how the price paused briefly at the moving average, and how it eventually broke through it and continued falling. I see no strong technical obstacles preventing price from revisiting 4402, where a potential double bottom could form before a deeper Fibonacci extension decline unfolds.

I now shift my attention to the younger H4 swings and I apply Fibonacci extension analysis, which shows me that price has already fallen below the 50.0 Fibonacci level into the bearish control zone, entering the discount area where sellers dominate. I estimate that this structure allows for a decline toward 4212 and possibly even lower if bearish momentum accelerates. I reflect on how gold’s inability to show sustained upward recovery, combined with dollar strength, is keeping pressure on the metal. I consider the psychological factor of the Asian session and I wait to see whether buyers will step in to support price or allow the decline to continue from the 4723 region. I also analyze the daily chart and I see a wide ascending channel that has contained gold since August 2025, and I recall how price rebounded from the 5600 resistance, fell aggressively to 4400, briefly broke the channel support, then returned inside the structure and climbed to 5100 before rejecting again. I currently see gold trading around 4685, and I identify the lower boundary of the daily channel near 4600 as the next logical bearish objective. I carefully manage my stop-loss due to increased volatility and wider price zones of $20–$30, and I plan for a possible move toward 5300 for future profit-taking and renewed short positioning if the market allows it.