FX.co ★ Death-X-PK | #Bitcoin chart analysis

BTCUSD M-15 Time Frame Analysis Bitcoin price action moved toward the 2021 bull market highs, with crypto traders warning of a probable BTC price bottom below $50,000. Bitcoin began the first week of February at 16-month lows, with traders forecasting additional declines. BTC price weakness worsens after a bleak weekend, with BTC/USD hitting levels not seen since November 2024. Macro trends begin to emerge, with analysts warning that Bitcoin may be anticipating future market suffering. Gold, silver, and stock prices fall, while the US dollar strengthens. Coinbase Premium is deeply negative, indicating a dearth of demand for Bitcoin in the United States. At the closing of the weekly and monthly candles, most traders were solidly pessimistic on Bitcoin. Monday began considerably worse, with BTC/USD beating its April 2025 low and reaching its lowest levels since November 2024. Bitcoin was trading slightly around $79,000 in lunchtime U.S. trade Monday, up from its lowest level below $75,000 over the weekend. At $78,700, BTC is up 2% in the last 24 hours and 7% off its weekend low, but it is still down more than 10% week on week. Ethereum is also up roughly 2% over the last day but down 19% from a week ago. The ISM manufacturing PMI, a key indicator of U.S. industrial activity based on purchasing manager surveys, came in higher than expected at 52.6 in January, compared to a prediction of 48.5. This is the first increase in manufacturing activity in 12 months and the highest reading since 2022. January is often a reorder month following the Christmas season, resulting in increased levels. This seasonal pattern was also observed in January 2025 and 2024. Looking ahead, investors will be looking for signals from this Fridays January U.S. jobs report about whether the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates again after stopping them at its January meeting last week. Bitcoin D1 Chart Analysis Bitcoin fell to fresh lows below $64,000 as market selling reached a historic high, and analysts warn that the bottom is not in. Bitcoin has dropped 13% in the last four days, down to $63,844 from $79,300. It is currently trading below $69,000, the 2021 bull market high, which many regard as a support level. The collapse was accompanied by a huge decline in futures activity, with BTCs open interest plummeting by more than $10 billion in the previous seven days. The $69,000 level marks the apex of the 2021 bull market. Prior cycle tops have generally provided support during weak markets. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin bottomed near the 2017 high of $19,600 before briefly falling to below $16,000 in November 2022. The current decline below $69,000 may follow this trend. However, past cycles have shown that prices might fall below previous highs before reaching a permanent bottom. This keeps Bitcoins downside risk open. André Dragosch, Bitwise European Head of Research, highlighted that the majority of recent transactions fell between $58,000 and $69,000. This range also corresponds to the 200-week moving average near $58,000, confirming it as a major demand zone. Glassnode estimates that 44% of the Bitcoin supply is in unrealized loss territory. A 30% drop from the recent top of $108K has cut the percentage of lucrative coins from 78% to 56%. If the 2022 bear market scenario repeats again, BTC might fall another 20% to $60,000. Despite the disturbing similarities between the sell-offs of 2018 and 2022, an 80% collapse of Bitcoin from its highs is unlikely due to institutional adoption, regulated product inflows, and interest rate relaxation.