FX.co ★ FX-Perfact | AUD/USD

AUD/USD Timeframe H4: Based on the AUD/USD H4 timeframe chart, price movements indicate that the currency pair remains in a medium-term bullish structure, although in recent sessions it has begun to experience a correction phase after failing to maintain gains near its latest peak. This correction is considered reasonable, as it occurred after a strong rally since late July. Technically, the price is still moving above both the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), indicating that the main market trend remains dominated by buyers. The 100-day moving average, which has recently crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicates that the upward momentum remains solidly grounded, while the upward slopes of both moving averages confirm that the intermediate trend has not yet shifted to bearish. The last few candles show selling pressure emerging after the price touched the resistance area around 0.7051. This area presents a significant obstacle, having previously been a point of profit-taking. The price's rejection of this resistance area triggered a correction towards the 0.7023 area, which currently serves as the nearest support. Interestingly, the price has managed to remain above this support area, indicating no significant weakening signals. As long as the price maintains its position above 0.7023, the potential for a rebound towards the previous resistance remains wide open. The 100-day moving average (MA), currently located not far below the price, also provides dynamic support. This indicates that any weakness could potentially be exploited by market participants to resume accumulation. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA), which is slightly lower, is still moving steadily upward, indicating that the long-term trend remains positive. As long as the price does not decisively penetrate these two moving averages, the correction is more appropriately viewed as a consolidation phase rather than the beginning of a trend reversal.

The horizontal support and resistance lines on the chart provide a fairly clear picture of key areas to watch. The first support level is around 0.7023, which is currently being tested by price movement. If this area is successfully held, the opportunity for a rally back towards 0.7051 will increase. If this resistance is broken through with a strong bullish candle and increasing momentum, the next upside target will be the 0.7089 area, which has been a strong resistance level and the highest level in recent weeks. A break above 0.7089 would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend and open up opportunities for AUD/USD to continue its appreciation to higher psychological levels. Conversely, if selling pressure intensifies and the price breaks through the 0.7023 support level, attention will shift to the 0.6960 area, which has previously served as a price rebound point several times. This area is also close to the 100-day moving average (MA), making it a significant potential buyer resistance zone. If selling pressure persists and breaks through this support level, the next support level will be around 0.6907. A decline to this level can still be considered a healthy correction as long as the price remains below the 200-day moving average (MA). However, if the 200-day moving average (MA) is also penetrated with increasing volume, the medium-term bullish structure will begin to lose validity, and the risk of a bearish trend shift will increase. In terms of momentum, price movement characteristics still exhibit a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, despite the ongoing short-term correction. This structure is one of the key characteristics of a healthy uptrend. As long as the price does not form a lower low below key support, buyer dominance can be considered maintained. Furthermore, the widening distance between the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) indicates that the previous upward momentum was strong enough that the current correction could potentially be just a balancing phase before the main trend resumes. The near-term movement of AUD/USD will likely continue to be influenced by the market's response to the 0.7023 support area. If a bullish candle with a long lower tail or other reversal pattern appears in that area, the chances of further strengthening increase. Conversely, if the price continues to close below this support area, selling pressure could extend to the next support area. Therefore, price reaction to horizontal levels is an important factor to observe before making trading decisions. Overall, the technical analysis of AUD/USD on the H4 timeframe remains bullish. The price's continued position above the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) indicates that the uptrend remains dominant. Key resistance levels are around 0.7051 and 0.7089, while key supports are at 0.7023, 0.6960, and 0.6907. As long as the price remains above key support and both moving averages maintain their bullish configuration, any correction can still be viewed as an opportunity to continue the uptrend. However, traders should remain vigilant for the potential for deeper weakness if key support is decisively breached, as this could shift market sentiment to bearish in the medium term.