FX.co ★ Cocoa Futures Hit 2-Year Lows

Cocoa prices have fallen below $4,700 per tonne, reaching their lowest point since January 2024, as traders are primarily concerned about decreasing demand along with improving supply forecasts from West Africa. Recent statistics reveal that European cocoa grinding diminished by 8.3% year-on-year to 304,470 tons in the fourth quarter, marking the sixth consecutive decline and significantly exceeding market expectations of a 2.9% drop. As Europe stands as the largest global cocoa market, it serves as a critical indicator of worldwide consumption trends. In Asia, cocoa grinding decreased by 4.8% year-on-year to 197,022 metric tonnes, a smaller decline than the anticipated 12%, while North American grindings saw a slight increase of 0.3% to 103,117 metric tonnes. On the supply side, the forecast for the 2025/26 harvest in West Africa is becoming increasingly clear, with port deliveries in the Ivory Coast totaling 37,000 tons from January 12 to January 18, an increase from 34,000 tons during the same period last year. Local farmers have expressed contentment with recent rainfall and soil moisture levels, which are conducive to the development of the upcoming April-to-September mid-crop harvest.