FX.co ★ US 10Y Yield Edges Higher

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.11% on Thursday, marking a fourth straight session of gains as investors tracked escalating tensions in the US–Iran conflict, following the reported sinking of an Iranian warship by a US submarine off the coast of Sri Lanka. The broader US–Israeli campaign against Iran has now entered its sixth day, keeping markets on edge over the risk of further escalation and a protracted confrontation that could undermine growth and push inflation higher.

Adding to the uncertainty, the New York Times reported that Iranian operatives had signaled a willingness to discuss terms for ending the conflict, a claim Tehran later denied.

In trade policy, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump’s newly announced 15% global tariff is expected to take effect later this week.

On the economic front, US services activity rose in February to its highest level in more than three and a half years, while private-sector payroll growth surpassed economists’ expectations.