FX.co ★ Atlanta Fed GDPNow Trimmed to 1.9% for Q1 2026, Pointing to Slightly Softer U.S. Growth

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s closely watched GDPNow model has been revised to show slightly weaker U.S. economic growth for the first quarter of 2026. According to the latest update on 1 April 2026, the estimate for annualized real GDP growth now stands at 1.9%, down from a previous reading of 2.0% for the same period.

While the adjustment is modest, the move signals a minor loss of momentum in the near-term growth outlook. The GDPNow model, which provides a running estimate of real GDP based on incoming economic data, is often used by investors and analysts as a high-frequency gauge of underlying economic conditions ahead of official government releases.

The 0.1 percentage point downgrade for the first quarter suggests that some recent data have come in slightly softer than earlier assumed, reinforcing a picture of moderate, rather than robust, expansion in the U.S. economy as 2026 gets underway.