FX.co ★ Ibovespa Gains Ahead of Election Runoff Poll

The Ibovespa advanced 0.9% on Thursday to close at 206,220, as investors awaited the first Datafolha poll for the presidential runoff, scheduled for release shortly after the market close. A survey by PoderData/Aya showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 53% of valid votes, versus 47% for incumbent President Lula. In Sunday’s first-round election, Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula, defying most pre-election polls and driving the index to a record high on Monday, led by financial stocks.

Market participants view the senator as more fiscally conservative, a stance that resonates in an environment of high domestic interest rates and sluggish economic activity. His economic team is reportedly weighing spending cuts equivalent to around 2% of GDP.

Among major movers, financial stocks were mixed: B3 rose 2%, while Bradesco slipped 1.3%. Petrobras gained 2.1%, tracking the sharp increase in international oil prices. Retail names also underpinned the index, with Magazine Luiza surging 5.6%. In contrast, Vale extended its losing streak to a fourth consecutive session, dropping 1.6% as iron ore prices in China fell to an 18-month low.