FX.co ★ Iron Ore Stabilizes on Chinese Steel Mill Restocking Hopes

Iron ore futures rebounded toward CNY 690 per ton, recovering some of last week’s losses after prices hit a four-year low. The move was supported by expectations that Chinese steel mills will step up restocking following the extended holiday, even as weak underlying fundamentals continued to constrain the rally. More mills are expected to return to the spot market this week to rebuild raw material inventories and sustain production.

At the same time, lower spot coke prices have eased cost pressures, helping to narrow steelmakers’ losses and potentially slowing the pace of output cuts. Nonetheless, any upside remains limited by signs of growing global supply, as miners ramp up shipments in the fourth quarter to meet quarterly and annual targets. Adding to the sector’s challenges, recent data showed that only 6.9% of Chinese steel producers were profitable at the end of September, underscoring the industry’s ongoing financial strain.