FX.co ★ 22.04.2021: Asian session unfolds quietly; outlook for USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

The US dollar index is weakening as the steady rally of the US stock market has stopped. This is a usual thing when one cycle follows another one. So, we should factor it in and use it in our trading. The yen managed to flex muscles amid the greenback’s decline. The Aussie is also likely to add gains. Learn more about the Asian session in our video review!

The trajectory of the US currency turned out to be in line with our yesterday's forecast. As we said, the US dollar slightly edged higher but by the end of the day, it retreated to the level of 91.100. This morning, the greenback is held at this level. Probably, it will remain at the same level until the publication of weekly jobless claims data.

This report may somehow stir up the market. However, our forecast remains in force. The US dollar index is likely to decline over the next few weeks to the level of 90.500. In the short term, its trajectory will depend on the dynamics of the US main indexes. If they continue to correct downwards after reaching their highs, the US dollar is sure to extend losses. Ir means that our forecasts will be 100% correct.

The dollar/yen pair is currently trading without any changes. The chart shows that the pair may rebound to the target level of 108.40. However, the indicators do not show significant activity. This is why we cannot make an accurate forecast for the future movement of the pair. It is crucial to monitor the situation with the US dollar. Currently, it is stuck in the same trading range before a possible decline. If so, the dollar/yen pair will approach the level of 108.40. Before that, a correction to 107.50 is possible. Bear it in mind. In any case, this will be a signal for further growth of the US dollar against the yen.

The Australian dollar rose by 30 pips yesterday, touching the target level of 0.7767. It offset the losses incurred on Tuesday and regained the lost positions. So, the Aussie is highly likely to continue to move upwards. The first short-term target is the level of 0.7820, followed by 0.7850.

There are also fundamental reasons for such a scenario. For instance, today, the NAB business confidence index in Australia is on tap. The index is projected to increase by 2 points from the previous quarter.

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