FX.co ★ absh kaat | XAU/USD, GOLD

I want to start by emphasizing that we finally broke through the bulls in a decisive and almost theatrical manner, because I see XAU/USD closing the week around 4887 as a clear signal of how extreme and emotionally charged the current environment has become. I cannot ignore the fact that nearly 900 dollars were added in a single day, and I honestly view this as a reflection of the extraordinary times we are living and trading in. I want to stress, however, that when I step back and examine the daily chart together with the core indicators, I see that the underlying technical picture has not fundamentally changed. I observe that the MA100 continues to trend upward with a fairly solid slope of roughly 30 degrees, and I interpret this as confirmation that the broader weekly sentiment remains supportive of higher prices. I also note that the MA18 is positioned above the key moving average, and I read this alignment as a textbook definition of a purely bullish market structure. I see that the lighter moving average is also directed north with a similar 30-degree trend angle, and I take this as further evidence that sentiment remains constructive not only on the weekly horizon but also within the daily trading context. I carefully monitor the Ichimoku Cloud, and I clearly see that it remains bullish, with its structure methodically stepping higher over time and consistently favoring continued price appreciation. I am particularly attentive to the fact that the cloud shows no meaningful signs of exhaustion or flattening, and I therefore expect the projected section of the indicator to support yet another bullish wave in the near future. I conclude from the absence of any credible sell signals that the market retains the technical capacity to resume and extend its upward trend. I remain cautious, because I know volatility can distort short-term behavior, but I still believe the dominant technical logic argues in favor of continuation rather than reversal. I therefore maintain a constructive bias and remain prepared to engage the market from the long side, provided price behavior continues to respect the existing bullish framework.

I want to return to what happened and highlight yesterday’s looming pullback, because I see it as the prologue to the current movement, and I believe the true preconditions were embedded in the correction itself and, more specifically, in the way that correction initially began to unfold. I am deliberately setting aside the deeper structural conclusions for later, because I prefer to put these observations into a conceptual suitcase alongside other prototypes that I revisit when broader patterns start repeating. I can now cautiously shift my focus toward potential upward scenarios, although I remain very careful and attentive to local nuances, because I see that all-encompassing volatility, even during relatively small breakouts and corrective phases, is capable of producing surprisingly sharp and impressive turns. I view the general situation as follows, strictly through my own interpretative lens of recent events. I believe the decline unfolded against the backdrop of the Fed’s rate freeze, and while I do not claim it was caused directly by that decision, I see the context itself as sufficient to justify a corrective response to prior price action. I interpret this as a natural adjustment, meaning I see some continuation of growth within the broader downward wave rather than a clean reversal. I note that the correction is now approaching roughly 75% of the entire downward saga, and I therefore identify a technically meaningful target level near 5368. I conclude from this alignment that purchasing still remains my priority, even if I approach entries with patience and selective timing. I assume that after this phase, I will be able to seriously consider scenarios involving either a deeper and more prolonged decline or a wide, extended consolidation that could stretch across several months. I recognize that what I have observed and traded over the past single week may now be distributed, refined, and psychologically “smoothed out” over a much longer three-month horizon. I consciously postpone those broader strategic debates, because I see my immediate task as identifying a catalyst or narrative capable of twisting the antelope’s tail, so to speak, and motivating the market to run decisively north.