FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I am looking at the EUR/USD chart history and I clearly see that the price previously attempted to sustain a bullish trend but failed to break above the key high at 1.187, which immediately caught my attention. I am observing that the current structure has shifted into a downward trend, and I am confident in this assessment because I see the moving averages with parameters 50 and 13 becoming intertwined, which typically reflects weakening bullish control. I am paying close attention to the 1.184 resistance level, as I see on the H1 chart that the price has tested this area multiple times without success. I am treating this level as a critical decision point, and I am waiting for confirmation through consolidation below the low of 1.187 before fully validating a sell signal. I am planning my risk carefully, and I intend to place my stop-loss above the high of 1.184, as I believe a move above this zone would invalidate my bearish premise. I am also open to the scenario in which the price temporarily rebounds from the 1.184 area back toward 1.187, where I would reassess market intent before making any commitment to trend continuation or reversal.

I am reviewing today’s price action and I am convinced that the move to new local lows reflects dominant dollar pressure rather than random volatility. I am aware of market chatter about a potential new Fed chairman, but I personally believe the reaction was amplified by broader risk-off sentiment, possibly linked to geopolitical fears such as a potential escalation involving Iran. I am confident that synchronized selling across currencies and metals usually signals the presence of a strong underlying fundamental driver. I am increasingly convinced that the broader trend structure is turning bearish, and I no longer view this move as a simple short-term correction. I am focused on the hourly chart, where I see early signs of trend transition even without strong momentum, which I know is not always necessary at the beginning of a larger move. I am satisfied with how the session closed, as I saw no meaningful attempt by buyers to regain control. I am dismissing isolated bullish candles, as I see no structural confirmation behind them. I am targeting the unfilled gap and the 1.1780 area as a logical downside pivot, while I remain cautious and flexible ahead of Monday’s open, knowing that weekend headlines could sharply reshape the technical landscape.