FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I want to reframe the recent price action in gold as a structured analytical narrative, and I see the past week as an extreme but revealing compression of market psychology rather than a random shock. I interpret the sharp decline that unfolded around the Fed’s rate freeze as a contextual trigger rather than a direct causal force, and I believe the market simply used that backdrop to justify a long-overdue corrective release of tension. I view the subsequent rebound as technically logical, because I see the correction retracing close to 75 percent of the entire prior downward leg, and I therefore anchor my key upside reference near the 5368 area as a technically meaningful objective. I continue to see buying as the primary strategic bias, even though I fully acknowledge that entries must be selective and defensive in such a high-volatility environment. I observe that daily indicators, including the upward-sloping MA100 and the bullish alignment of shorter moving averages, still reflect a constructive broader structure, and I interpret this as evidence that the market has not invalidated its larger bullish framework. I recognize that volatility has reached levels where even minor breakouts can morph into violent reversals, and I therefore approach every impulse move with skepticism rather than excitement. I deliberately postpone deeper conclusions about multi-month structure, because I believe the market first needs to exhaust the emotional energy accumulated during this week. I frame my current task as identifying the narrative or catalyst capable of sustaining another upward impulse without immediately collapsing under its own weight.

I reflect on Friday’s session as a cautionary lesson, because I see the large bearish candle and the stop-driven volatility as proof that timing currently matters more than directional bias. I note that the price closed near 4887, and I treat this zone as a battleground rather than a signal, since hourly sell targets were clearly activated during the collapse. I acknowledge that the first Fibonacci extension at 4702 has already been reached, and I accept that the market has technically earned the right to probe deeper levels if momentum re-accelerates. I recognize the second and third Fibonacci projections at 4139 and 3268 as extreme but valid scenarios, even if I do not treat them as immediate expectations. I consider a possible test of the moving average near 4994 as a realistic early-week scenario, and I see a bearish rejection from that zone as a potential opportunity to rejoin a corrective decline. I remain focused on the 4679–4650 area as a near-term downside reference, because I see that zone as a likely magnet if selling pressure renews. I openly admit that I did not trade during the wild move, and I view that restraint as a rational response rather than a failure. I conclude that until structure and direction realign more clearly across H1, H4, and daily charts, patience remains my most valuable trading position.