FX.co ★ Farhan Ali Shakir | EUR/USD

Market Analysis The EURUSD H1 chart shows a clear shift from an earlier bullish push into a steady bearish phase. After peaking near the 1.2050–1.2060 area, price momentum faded and sellers gradually took control, producing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent candles show persistent downside follow-through with only shallow intraday pullbacks, which often signals that market participants are selling rallies rather than buying dips. Price is now pressing into the 1.1850 region, an area that visually acts as a short-term support zone where the market is attempting to pause. However, the overall structure still reflects bearish control: the decline is relatively orderly, and the candles remain predominantly red in the latest segment. This kind of action typically appears when the market is repricing expectations—either due to sentiment changes, macro drivers, or technical breakdowns—resulting in sustained selling pressure across multiple sessions. Moving Average The moving average (the red line on the chart) provides a trend filter and helps clarify whether price is trading with or against the prevailing direction. In the current setup, EURUSD is trading below the moving average, and the moving average itself is flattening to slightly turning down, which reinforces the idea that the bullish phase has ended and a bearish bias has taken over. When price remains under the moving average for an extended period, it often indicates that rallies may face resistance around that dynamic level. In other words, any rebound toward the moving average can attract fresh selling interest because traders view it as a “value zone” to re-enter shorts rather than a sign of recovery. Additionally, the distance between price and the moving average suggests bearish momentum has been strong enough to pull price away from its mean, a condition that sometimes leads to a brief correction—but unless price reclaims and holds above the moving average, such corrections are generally treated as countertrend moves within a broader downtrend. RSI Conformation The RSI(14) reads near 29.79, which places it around oversold territory (commonly considered below 30). This confirms that bearish momentum has been intense in the recent leg down and that sellers have dominated the short-term order flow. An RSI near 30 can mean two things depending on context: it can warn that downside may be temporarily stretched (increasing the probability of a short-lived bounce), but it can also occur during strong trends where the market “rides” oversold conditions without immediately reversing. In this chart, RSI drifting low while price continues to fall aligns with trend continuation rather than a clean reversal signal. For RSI to support a more confident bullish reversal case, traders often look for bullish divergence (price making a lower low while RSI makes a higher low) or a decisive RSI recovery back above 30 and then 40–50. As shown, RSI is weak and not yet demonstrating a strong recovery pattern, so it primarily serves as confirmation of selling pressure rather than a standalone buy trigger. MACD Conformation The MACD(12,26,9) values displayed are negative, and the MACD line appears below the signal line, which is a classic bearish confirmation. When MACD is below zero, it indicates that the shorter-term moving average is under the longer-term moving average—evidence that downside momentum is dominant. The histogram also appears on the negative side, supporting the view that bearish momentum has not fully dissipated. Importantly, MACD is a “momentum of trend” tool: it tends to confirm whether the current price move has enough strength to persist. In the present scenario, MACD’s negative positioning reinforces the conclusion drawn from the moving average and price structure—EURUSD is not merely dipping; it is trending lower with momentum. A potential early sign of stabilization would be the histogram shrinking toward zero and the MACD line beginning to curl upward, but that improvement is not clearly present yet, meaning the bearish case remains better supported.

Conclusion Overall, the technical picture on EURUSD H1 remains bearish. Price action shows a descending structure after topping near the 1.2050 area, the moving average is acting as dynamic resistance with price trading below it, RSI is near oversold levels confirming heavy selling pressure, and MACD stays negative, validating bearish momentum. While the oversold RSI raises the possibility of a short-term corrective bounce, the broader evidence still favors continuation unless price can reclaim the moving average and momentum indicators begin to reverse convincingly. From a practical trading perspective, bearish setups tend to be higher probability while the market remains below the moving average and MACD stays under zero, whereas bullish attempts should be treated cautiously until RSI recovers sustainably and price breaks key resistance zones. In short, the chart reflects a market in control of sellers, with only limited signs so far that the downtrend has ended.