FX.co ★ remington.kihn | USD/JPY

Currently, the 156 zone is a key equilibrium point. The price is holding near it, but the behavior looks fragile: the bounces are weak, upward movement is difficult, while downward moves faster. It looks more like a pause before a move rather than a reversal upwards. If the market confidently drops below 156, the downside opens up significantly. There are fewer strong supports there, and the movement may accelerate due to stops being hit and late long positions being liquidated. The first target for the decline is 155.8–155.9. This is the nearest area where the fall may attempt to slow down. However, such levels often only trigger a short reaction, not a full reversal. The next more serious area is 155.3–155.5. There was active trading here before, so a more noticeable struggle is possible. This is the first area where buyers may try to show strength. Below lies 154.6–154.8. Approaching this area indicates that the correction has deepened. From a technical standpoint, the growth structure on higher timeframes will appear significantly weaker there. In an extended scenario, if the pressure intensifies, the market may extend down to 154, but this would no longer be a basic move, rather an impulse acceleration. Prices usually move quickly there if a breakdown begins. The nearest resistance above is 156.8–157. Even during bounces, sellers are likely to reappear there. This is the first area where the upward movement may stall. The key ceiling for me is 157.5. A noticeable downward reversal started from there, indicating significant supply. As long as the price remains below this level, I do not consider the market truly strong. Only a breakthrough above 157.5 would change the outlook towards further growth. Before that, any rallies appear as bounces within a heavier structure. In conclusion, my current logic is simple: below 156, the path downwards opens up faster than upwards. Between 156 and 157.5 is a zone of struggle and false moves. Exiting this range will determine the next true direction.