FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

I am currently analyzing the USD/JPY pair and I see that the EMA 13–50 configuration is still generating a sell signal on the H1 timeframe, which tells me that short-term momentum is leaning bearish despite the broader bullish structure seen earlier. I notice that price is hovering around 153.69–153.72, and I believe that only a clear breakout and consolidation above 153.72 would confirm renewed bullish strength and open the path toward 154.37, where the previous bearish wave historically originated. I observe that the recent upward attempts have lacked conviction, and I recognize that the pair has mostly flattened rather than staged a meaningful recovery from the 152.27 low. I see that during this consolidation, the moving average has dropped toward price instead of price rallying toward it, which I interpret as a sign of underlying weakness. I acknowledge that a sustained move below 152.14 would increase the probability of a broader reversal, and I would then anticipate further downside toward 151.56 and potentially 150.16, where buyers previously stepped in. I also cannot fully rule out a deeper spike toward the 149 region if bearish pressure accelerates.

I am also reviewing the H4 structure and I conclude that the market is not showing strong evidence of forming a solid corrective pullback, which keeps my bias cautious. I see that the pair recently tested 152.60 and is now trading near 152.80, and I interpret this as range-bound behavior within the previous day’s limits. I notice that the RSI is positioned mid-range and slightly pointing upward, which suggests limited bullish momentum, while the AO is flashing a weak sell signal that aligns with my cautious stance. I recognize that the Stochastic appears overbought under the 153.90 cap, and I believe this supports a bearish continuation scenario if 153.25 fails to hold. I expect that a test of 153.60–153.70 could occur in the short term, and I would consider cautious intraday buying only toward that resistance zone. I remain mindful that a confirmed break below 152.30 would likely trigger renewed selling pressure with targets near 151.00, and I understand that disciplined risk management is essential in such a volatile environment.