FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CAD

USD/CAD I see USD/CAD at 1.3677 and I feel the same hesitation you’re describing, because on H4 I also see a market that looks directionless and heavy. I notice that price is still compressed between 1.3650 and the psychological 1.3700 figure, and I interpret the small alternating candles as a sign of balance rather than trend. I observe that when momentum appears, it quickly fades into long wicks or gets fully absorbed by the next opposite candle, and I read that as aggressive intraday order flow on both sides. I draw a descending trend line from 1.3723 and I can justify a bearish bias, yet when I connect the recent highs including 1.3711, I can also construct a short-term rising structure, and I admit that this duality reflects a lack of commitment. I remember yesterday’s push into 1.3711–1.3713 and I interpret the failure to break despite rising volume as absorption by limit sellers, and I believe that area has now become a reinforced supply zone. I think the inability to hold above that resistance shifts short-term probability toward sellers, at least until proven otherwise.

I prioritize selling in this environment because I believe the rejection from 1.3711 signals exhaustion, and I expect continuation toward 1.3660 and potentially below 1.3657 if momentum expands. I recognize, however, that repeated tests of 1.3657 without breakdown also strengthen support, and I remain cautious about assuming an immediate collapse. I acknowledge that upcoming U.S. dollar news could act as the catalyst for a breakout, and I remind myself that news-driven spikes often produce false breakouts before returning to range. I plan to watch how price behaves around 1.3657 because I see that as the decision point: I will favor shorts on a clean H1 close below with follow-through, but I will reconsider if buyers defend it with strong-bodied candles. I accept that until one side decisively wins, I am trading a range, and I treat USD/CAD less as a trend pair and more as a liquidity trap where patience matters more than conviction.