FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I see that the second day of spring is bringing not only warmer weather but also renewed volatility in EUR/USD, and I interpret the market open reaction as fairly expected given the current geopolitical background. I believe the initial gap and immediate push south reflect caution rather than panic, and I think the dollar’s opening tone will be decisive for short-term direction. I assume that if dollar demand continues to rise steadily, we could still test deeper supports despite the broader narrative that the dollar’s situation is not the most favorable. I note that price already dropped to 1.1856 and tested the breakout area near 1.1759, and I view this zone as technically important for defining the next impulse. I consider 1.1793 a priority level, and I plan to react decisively if I see a confirmed break and consolidation below it. I expect the first technical reaction to occur around gap closure, and I will monitor how price behaves around 1.1810 because I see that level as the trigger for a clearer buying structure. I believe that only a firm consolidation above the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement will allow me to confidently aim for higher targets, potentially toward the 1.1820–1.1830 zone as an initial objective.

I observe that price has not yet broken below the local low around 1.1741, and I acknowledge that this level remains vulnerable if bearish pressure persists. I recognize that the 1.1754–1.1764 area currently represents a buyer’s range, but I remain cautious because I saw a previous surge there that lacked strong follow-through. I therefore do not fully trust that zone to hold if selling accelerates. I focus more seriously on the 1.1669 level, and I treat it as a stronger daily support that could attract more substantial demand if tested. I believe that even if price moves north intraday, I would likely interpret it as a corrective pullback rather than a full bullish reversal unless we secure structural confirmation above resistance. I remain flexible in my plan, and I intend to buy only if consolidation below 1.1740 fails, because I need evidence that sellers cannot maintain control. I conclude that everything depends on how price behaves around these key technical levels, and I will trade according to confirmed structure rather than anticipation.