FX.co ★ FX-Perfact | GBP/USD

GBP/USD H4 Timeframe: On the H4 timeframe, the current GBP/USD movement shows a bearish market structure after failing to maintain the upward momentum established in late January. Overall, the price has been forming a pattern of gradually lower highs and lower lows since mid-February, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant. The price's failure to re-break the intermediate resistance area around 1.3580–1.3610 further strengthens the indication that the medium-term trend has shifted into a downward corrective phase. In terms of dynamic trends, the price's position below the medium- and long-term moving averages indicates a shift in sentiment to negative. The faster moving average has been sloping and trending downward, while the slower moving average has also begun to lose its upward slope. Furthermore, the intersection of the two moving averages has acted as dynamic resistance, repeatedly holding back price increases. Each retracement to this area has been met with renewed selling pressure, reflecting the dominance of market participants who are exploiting the rise as an opportunity to distribute. The latest price structure shows significant weakness following the rejection at 1.3550–1.3580. The decline brought the price back closer to the key support zone around 1.3400–1.3420. This area is a key level because it previously served as a consolidation area and price reaction point. If this level holds, there is a chance of a short-term technical rebound due to the relatively oversold price conditions. However, if a valid breakout occurs accompanied by strong momentum, there could be room for a decline towards the next support level around 1.3340 and even potentially a deeper correction.

From a price action perspective, volatility in the final phase shows an impulsive downward movement and a relatively shallow correction. This indicates that selling pressure remains more aggressive than buying interest. As long as the price remains below the immediate resistance area around 1.3500–1.3520, the bias will likely remain bearish in the short to medium term. Overall, the GBP/USD technical outlook on the H4 timeframe remains dominated by negative sentiment, with a fairly clear downtrend structure. The main scenario to watch is the price reaction to the 1.3400 area, which serves as psychological support. Holding this level could trigger a consolidation phase or a pullback, but as long as the price is unable to return and hold above the 1.3580–1.3610 area, any increase remains potentially corrective. Therefore, a more cautious approach is still necessary, particularly by paying attention to price action confirmation at key support and resistance areas to anticipate trend continuation or potential short-term reversals.