FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I see that the recent gap opening on GBP/USD was clearly driven by force majeure fundamentals, especially the renewed safe-haven demand for the US dollar amid global geopolitical tension, and I recognize how that distorted the technical structure at the open. I applied my Fibonacci grid to the first wave of the third bearish impulse and I observed that price precisely reached the 161.8% extension, which for me confirms that the third wave of the third decline has technically fulfilled its classical target. I noticed that the weekly marginal control zone at 1.3255–1.3233 was positioned just below that extension, and I saw how the immediate buyer reaction from that zone validated it as a liquidity pocket. I understand that once the MCZ 1/4 was cleared, I had to shift my focus toward the daily MCZ 1/2 at 1.3413–1.3429 as the next upside magnet. I acknowledge that the previous trendline breakdown reduced its structural importance, and I now treat the current price movement as a channel dominated by sellers rather than a clean trending market. I see that on the H1 timeframe the pair is rebounding from the 1.3302–1.3253 demand range, and I anticipate that a retest of that area could occur before any sustainable bullish continuation.

I recognize that my hesitation to sell around 1.3358 or near the 1.3362 Fibonacci resistance is not purely technical but also psychological, and I admit that my long-term bias toward GBP/USD influences my execution. I see that 1.3560 acted as strong resistance previously and that the break below 1.3440 reopened the path toward 1.3200, yet I also understand that momentum has recently shifted after the bullish breakout from 1.3252, which aligns with the 100% Fibonacci base. I observe that the 61.8% retracement at 1.3380 is the immediate technical hurdle, and I believe that a consolidation above 1.3417, the 50% level, would confirm stronger upside potential. I factor in the upcoming ADP data and I accept that weaker employment numbers could pressure the dollar and support further GBP/USD recovery. I conclude that buying near 1.3355 toward 1.3380 with an aggressive stop is a tactical play, but I also understand that only a daily close above 1.3300 will significantly improve the probability of expansion toward 1.3700 and beyond.