FX.co ★ Helsinki | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold is testing offers near the psychological $4,150 mark, drawing modest support as retreating oil prices ease inflation concerns and strengthen the argument that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting later this month. The pullback in crude has been driven by expectations of restored supply. Over the weekend, G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, and following pressure from President Trump, committed to lifting restrictions on energy exports. Shipping data on Monday reinforced that theme, showing Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, despite attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Reports that there is now more oil on the market than previously feared have offset news of Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais, as well as OPEC+ holding its November production targets steady. Meanwhile, Friday's disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls report helped markets price out nearly all of an October Fed hike, with the probability of a pause now exceeding 80%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Payrolls rose just 29,000 in September, barely a third of the 90,000 economists expected, while August's figure was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000. That dovish reassessment is helping non-yielding assets like gold recover ground as Treasury yields decline. However, the dollar's continued uptrend remains a headwind. TD Securities noted that the weak payrolls headline, soft average hourly earnings, and downward revisions only "slightly burden" the dollar, adding that it is difficult to identify sustained bullish USD signals from the data or Fed channel alone. The bank now has "more conviction about sitting out USD rallies than chasing the USD to a new high," preferring to treat dollar strength as an opportunity to reduce exposure. Geopolitical risks remain elevated: Iran's parliament speaker insisted the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until seven conditions are met, the Pentagon evacuated a dozen B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford following Iranian threats, and Russia warned of intensified strikes on Ukraine. Any renewed oil rally could revive inflation fears and pressure gold if yields climb again, making the ISM Services PMI and Fed commentary the key near-term catalysts.

Gold is trading near $4,135, positioned beneath all four key moving averages, a technical configuration that confirms sellers retain the upper hand despite the recent stabilisation. On the hourly chart, the 50-period moving average rests at $4,165 while the 200-period average sits at $4,217, placing price roughly $30 below the shorter average and about $82 beneath the longer one. Those two levels form the first and second ceilings any bullish recovery attempt must overcome. On the four-hour chart, the 50-period average is positioned at $4,210 and the 200-period average at $4,378, leaving price about $75 below the shorter average and roughly $243 beneath the longer one. The standout technical feature is the tight clustering between the hourly 200-period average at $4,217 and the four-hour 50-period average at $4,210, which merge into a reinforced resistance shelf spanning $4,210 to $4,217, the most important barrier on the chart right now. The resistance barrier sits at $4,165, aligning with the hourly 50-period average. Above it, the $4,210–$4,217 confluence forms a heavier hurdle, followed by $4,280 and $4,378, the latter aligning with the four-hour 200-period average. Further ceilings sit at $4,420 and $4,480. On the downside, initial support rests at $4,100, a psychologically significant round number. A break below would expose $4,060, then $4,020, with $3,980 marking a deeper demand area likely to attract buyers. If gold holds above $4,100 and pushes through $4,165, buyers could target the $4,210–$4,217 confluence and potentially $4,280 beyond it. Should selling pressure intensify and $4,100 give way, a deeper correction toward $4,060 and $4,020 becomes increasingly probable. The broader bias stays bearish while price remains beneath the four-hour averages, but the next move hinges on whether buyers can defend $4,100 and how markets digest the ISM Services PMI alongside the Fed's shifting rate expectations and the fragile Middle East situation.