FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/JPY

I am observing on the GBPJPY H1 timeframe that the market structure remains bullish, but I clearly see that this bullish impulse has paused near the 208.95 resistance line, which is acting as a short-term ceiling for price. I note that from this resistance area, the pair performed a corrective pullback toward the 207.89 support level, which I interpret as a natural reaction within an ongoing trend rather than a full reversal. I see that from this 207.89 support line, price action managed to engulf the previous high, and I view this as a sign that buyers are still active and defending lower levels. I expect that prices are now aiming to retest the 208.64 resistance line, which I consider an important intermediate barrier before any attempt to challenge the higher 208.95 zone again. I believe that if price reaches the 208.64 resistance line and shows clear rejection or bearish confirmation, I would consider short positions with an initial target near 207.35. I further assume that after such a move, the market could develop a zigzag structure to the downside, potentially extending toward the broader support zone around 205.22. I also recognize the formation of a flat correction within the 208.64–207.89 range, and I interpret this as a consolidation phase where the market is gathering liquidity before the next directional move. I strongly believe that the situation is structurally simple, because a clean breakout of either boundary of this range will determine the next directional bias. I am personally more inclined to look for short opportunities, especially if I see a decisive break and consolidation below the 207.89 support level. I base this bearish inclination on momentum behavior rather than trend alone, as I notice early signs of exhaustion near resistance. I am monitoring my indicators closely, and I acknowledge that RSI and MACD are currently sending mixed signals. I see that RSI is showing minimal buying volume and a rather neutral sentiment, which suggests a lack of strong bullish conviction. I also notice that MACD had only just begun to show minimal selling pressure before that momentum started to fade again, indicating uncertainty among market participants. I therefore remain cautious, patient, and focused on confirmation, as I believe the next impulsive move will only occur after the market clearly resolves this consolidation phase.

I can see that the bulls failed to break the second resistance level earlier, and I interpret this as a temporary pause rather than a reversal of the broader market structure. I am analyzing the daily chart and I clearly note that the GBPJPY pair remains in a well-defined bullish trend, which continues to favor buying scenarios over selling pressure. I observe that during today’s trading session the pair is trading near the 208.24 level, and I view this price action as a sign of sustained buyer interest. I see that the price is holding firmly above the Ichimoku cloud, and I interpret this as confirmation of ongoing upward momentum and trend strength. I believe that if the daily candle manages to close above the second resistance level, I can reasonably consider opening long positions in alignment with the prevailing trend. I notice that the stochastic indicator is currently positioned in the resistance zone, and I understand this as a warning that short-term pullbacks are possible even within a bullish structure. I still believe that intraday growth targets remain relevant, and I focus on the classic Pivot reversal levels as practical reference points for potential profit-taking. I expect that continued growth from current levels, combined with a confident breakout above the second resistance level, will trigger a new impulsive wave to the upside. I anticipate that such a breakout would likely open the way for a sustained move north toward and beyond the resistance area around 210.04. I consider this zone to be a key psychological and technical barrier, and I think a clean break above it would significantly strengthen bullish sentiment. I also remain cautious, because I know that if bears return aggressively to the market, the support level at 205.73 will become the main benchmark for evaluating downside risk. I believe that a clear consolidation below this support would signal a shift in the current balance of power and force me to reassess the bullish scenario. I therefore prefer to remain flexible, focusing on price behavior around resistance and support while managing risk carefully within this evolving market structure.