FX.co ★ absh kaat | EUR/USD

I am looking at today’s price action in EUR/USD and I note that the pair has made a very convincing move to new local lows, which immediately tells me that pressure from the dollar side was dominant throughout the session. I am aware that the market reaction was reportedly influenced by speculation around the possible appointment of a new Fed chairman, although I personally expected a different type of response and initially questioned the logic behind such a sharp move. I am also considering that rumors or concerns about a possible attack on Iran may have played a role, because I clearly see that it was not only the dollar strengthening but also a broad risk-off reaction that hit metals quite aggressively. I am confident there was a real fundamental or geopolitical driver behind this move, as the synchronized pressure across multiple asset classes rarely appears without a serious reason. I am now increasingly convinced that the overall trend structure has begun to shift into bearish territory, and I believe this shift is no longer just a short-term fluctuation. I am seeing signs that a genuine downtrend may already be forming, and I am especially focused on how this is beginning to show itself on the hourly chart. I am not particularly concerned about the lack of strong momentum at this stage, because I know from experience that momentum is not always required at the early phase of a trend transition. I am satisfied with how the session closed, as it ended on a very constructive note for sellers and did not show any meaningful attempt by buyers to regain control. I am noting that there were some bullish candles during the session, but I clearly see that they were limited in number and lacked follow-through. I am especially dismissive of the single bullish candle that appeared in the evening, as I do not see it having any technical or structural importance. I am analyzing the 1.1850 level closely, and I conclude that it does not represent strong support and can be passed through without much resistance. I am also keeping in mind the presence of an unclosed gap, and I think it would be technically healthy for the market to close it during the continuation of this move. I am convinced there are sufficient technical and behavioral reasons for the price to gravitate toward that gap area. I am therefore treating the region around 1.1780 as a realistic and logical southern reference point for the current phase of the decline.

I am observing that EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1855, and I am clearly encouraged by the fact that my favorite pair has been showing a steady and technically justified decline for the past two trading days. I decided to prioritize the bearish scenario once I realized that the market was unable to secure a move or consolidation above the key resistance at 1.2081, which reinforced my broader bearish bias. I was never expecting a full trend reversal at that stage, but I was patiently waiting for a normal corrective movement to the downside so I could actively participate in selling opportunities. I initiated all of my sell positions from the 1.20 pattern, as I considered this area to be structurally important and technically reliable for short entries. I specifically focused on the 1.19 pattern for profit-taking, and I targeted the 1.1918 level, which I have personally treated as a benchmark level since September due to its repeated market reactions. I successfully closed my initial sell positions near this level during the first half of the trading day, as I believed the price had fulfilled its immediate downside objective. I then observed a period of sideways consolidation, and I interpreted this flat behavior as a sign of weakness rather than accumulation for growth. I decided to re-enter short positions once it became clear to me that the pair lacked the strength and momentum to resume upward movement. I set new downside targets in the 1.1866–1.1849 zone, which aligned well with my intraday technical structure and lower support projections. I managed to protect and lock in profits as the price approached this zone, which allowed me to reduce risk while staying engaged with the market. I now find myself without a clear directional signal, as the market appears to be transitioning into a pause or reassessment phase. I do not want to rush into conclusions, and I prefer to observe how the senior timeframes behave over the weekend. I plan to carefully monitor the market opening on Monday, as I am aware that gaps, volatility spikes, or unexpected fundamental triggers could change the technical picture. I remain flexible in my expectations, and I will only build new trading plans once I see confirmation from higher timeframes and fresh market behavior.