FX.co ★ Melsiafy | XAU/USD, GOLD

What an insane candle… seriously. I mean, the way gold just exploded on the H4 is not something you see every day. This wasn’t just a move… this was a full-on eruption. Out of nowhere, the whole structure flipped, and that massive green candle completely reshaped the chart in just a few hours. I’ve been watching the 4780 level for a long time, and it always felt like a heavy ceiling—every time price got close, sellers would step in and push it back down. But this time? It didn’t just test it… it smashed right through it. Now price is sitting around 4798, and the whole vibe feels different. It’s not just a clean breakout and done—it actually feels like buyers are still jumping in aggressively. Almost like the market shifted into a high-speed accumulation phase. But at the same time, I wouldn’t say this is fully confirmed yet. The next candle matters a lot. If we get a strong H4 close above that 4780–4800 zone, then we’re not just talking about a local high anymore… that’s a structural shift that could change the bigger picture. One thing that stood out immediately is the RSI. It’s sitting around 66, and honestly, I’m not looking at that as a problem. Some people might say it’s getting close to overbought, but in moves like this, RSI can stay elevated for a while. In strong gold rallies, it’s normal to see it push above 70 and just stay there. So to me, this just shows strong momentum, not exhaustion. Also, look at how far price has moved away from the moving averages. The 50 MA is way down around 4610, and price is miles above it. That kind of gap doesn’t happen without serious momentum behind it. It tells you this wasn’t just technical—it had real fuel behind it. Even the 200 MA sitting down near 4400 shows how much the long-term direction is starting to lean bullish again. Now in terms of levels, this is where things get interesting. First, 4780—this is the big one. It used to be a strong resistance, and now it has to act as support. If price pulls back and holds above it, that’s a very strong sign that buyers are still in control. Above that, the next area to watch is 4840–4860. That’s where I’d expect some profit-taking to show up. After a move like this, it’s normal for the market to slow down there. And if momentum keeps going? Then the big psychological level sitting at 5000 starts to come into play. Sounds extreme, but with this kind of volatility, it’s not unrealistic. What makes this move even more interesting is the reason behind it. The news about a possible truce or easing tensions in the Middle East would normally push gold lower, not higher. But this reaction felt different. It looks more like a massive short squeeze. Sellers got caught off guard, price moved fast, and they were forced to close positions, which only added more fuel to the upside. You can actually see it in the way price sliced through levels like 4688 and 4767 without hesitation. That kind of move usually means one thing—sellers stepped aside completely. There was no real resistance left in the way. Personally, I don’t see this as just a temporary spike. There’s a mix here of strong technical breakout, momentum, and market positioning all lining up together. Trying to short something like this at 4798 feels risky. Moves like this tend to keep going longer than people expect. As long as price holds above 4780, buyers are still in control. And the next real test sits around 4820. If price clears that area cleanly, then the move toward 5000 starts looking a lot more realistic.