FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

I currently see two primary scenarios unfolding on the USD/JPY pair, and I am focusing first on the correction potential toward the support range of 150.96–148.52, which I believe remains the most important zone for medium-term structure building. I consider this area a key foundation, and I expect that once the price reaches it, I will most likely see renewed bullish activity and a continuation of the broader upward trend. I also acknowledge a second scenario, where the bears may manage to push the pair below this support and consolidate there, and I am prepared to immediately shift fully to the sellers’ side if that happens, as I would then anticipate a deeper decline before looking for an optimal point to enter short positions. I observe that USD/JPY remains bearish on the H1 timeframe, and I can still identify short-term short-selling potential as the price only pulls back north in what I see as a temporary upward retracement. I note that a rebound from 155.03 could revive short entries, and I understand that a slight breakout above this level could lead to a retest of 155.53, from where I would then expect renewed downward pressure toward 154.09 or even lower. I am also considering my indicators carefully, as I see RSI hinting at continued long pressure and rising volumes, while MACD signals fading bearishness but still reflects notable momentum. I treat these mixed signals cautiously, and I recognize they confirm the broader market hesitation.

I also see USD/JPY touching a strong support near 154.52, and I believe this level remains a solid launching point for a rebound toward 156.00 and higher if dollar sentiment strengthens again. I admit that I expected a stronger bullish acceleration earlier, but I can clearly see that temporary dollar weakness across the market has paused the rally, although I do not think this pause will last long. I understand that discussions about a potential tightening cycle in Japan remain slow and incremental, and I recognize that Japan’s cautious rate-hike approach, paired with continued yen liquidity, should ultimately favor long-term bullish momentum on the pair. I expect the downward cycle to be nearly complete, and I anticipate a possible test of the EMA200 followed by a rebound once Asia’s session brings new data. I want to see a break above the EMA50 at 155.65 for confirmation, and I acknowledge that the pair currently fluctuates around 155.00 with no clear direction, forming a correction within a broader bullish market. I remain neutral right now, and I am watching closely whether the pair will rise toward the upper channel boundary for a breakout or drift lower again before establishing a clearer trend.