FX.co ★ absh kaat | GBP/JPY

I am analyzing GBPJPY on the H4 chart and I observe that the market structure remains bullish as the price continues to trade above the upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, which clearly signals that buyers still maintain overall control. I see a bullish engulfing pattern forming in this zone, and I interpret this pattern as confirmation that demand remains strong despite the recent appearance of selling pressure. I note that sellers have attempted to push the market lower, but I recognize that price has not been able to decisively break below the key support levels at 208.94 and 207.87, which reinforces my bullish bias in the short term. I believe that a test of the 207.87 support level is essential for the market to gather fresh liquidity and strength, and I expect that a rebound from this level will occur if buyers successfully defend it. I anticipate that such a rebound will drive the price back toward the 208.94 resistance level, where I expect selling pressure to re-emerge. I consider that only after a clear rejection and rebound from the 208.94 resistance area will sustained selling resume, potentially driving the price down toward the 203.98 target zone. I understand that a confirmed breakout below 207.87 would signal that the price is exiting the buy zone and entering a neutral phase, which aligns with the market moving back inside the Ichimoku Cloud. I further acknowledge that a deeper breakout below 206.83 would mark a transition into the sell zone, providing stronger confirmation of a broader bearish move. I also analyze the CCI indicator on the H4 timeframe and I notice that it narrowly missed reaching an extreme oversold peak before starting to turn upward, which I interpret as an early sign of a corrective rebound. I expect this CCI behavior to support a bounce from the 207.87 support area and possibly fuel a pullback toward 208.94. I recognize that if price manages to break and hold above the 208.94 resistance level, bullish momentum could extend further upward before any meaningful decline resumes. I conclude that while the broader structure remains bullish for now, I remain cautious and prepared for trend changes once key Ichimoku levels are broken and confirmed.

I am observing that GBPJPY has established a very strong and psychologically important support base around the “very round” 200.00 level, and I interpret this area as a long-term accumulation zone where buyers clearly regained control. I see that from this support, the instrument has been moving gradually and steadily higher, which tells me that the trend is developing in a healthy and controlled manner rather than through impulsive spikes. I note that the most recent extended stop was formed near the Pivot level at 206.25, and I consider this level to be a key technical midpoint for the current bullish structure. I recognize that from 206.25, the distance to the projected resistance around 212.50 is roughly equal to the prior bullish leg, and I interpret this symmetry as a classic measured-move setup that often appears in trending markets. I therefore believe that the pair is naturally gravitating toward the 212.50 resistance area as the next logical upside target. I also observe that price continues to move confidently above the north-facing moving average fan, which reinforces my view that bullish momentum remains dominant and that dynamic support is rising beneath the market. I analyze the indicators in the additional window and I see that oscillators are clearly supporting the idea of continued growth rather than signaling exhaustion. I notice that the histogram is climbing above its reference line and gradually heading toward the overbought zone, and I interpret this as a sign of strengthening bullish pressure rather than an immediate reversal threat. I acknowledge that the Commodity Channel Index has shown a divergence with price, indicating a potential bearish slowdown, but I emphasize that the CCI remains in positive territory, which tells me that the underlying trend is still intact. I conclude that this divergence is more likely a pause or consolidation signal rather than an outright reversal warning at this stage. I find no clear technical evidence of a trend change or meaningful decline forming at current levels. I therefore maintain a bullish outlook and I continue to focus on higher price objectives, with my primary attention directed toward the 212.50 resistance level as long as the market holds above key supports and momentum indicators remain supportive.