FX.co ★ absh kaat | XAU/USD, GOLD

I observed that the morning signal to move north after the break above 4334 was technically confirmed, yet I clearly see that the market has failed to generate meaningful follow-through, which tells me that momentum is being absorbed rather than expanded at current levels. I interpret the lack of progress as direct interference from the H1 structure, and I believe this higher-timeframe friction is naturally slowing the advance rather than invalidating the bullish intent. I consider a pullback not only acceptable but structurally healthy, because I expect it would allow the H1 cycle to complete and reset internal momentum conditions. I anticipate that once this corrective phase matures, I could see renewed strength emerge, enabling the broader northward trajectory to resume with greater stability. I also note that the American session participants appear inclined to continue pushing price higher tomorrow, and I factor this behavioral bias into my directional expectation. I suspect that after European liquidity fades, I may see U.S. traders attempt another breakout above 4334, especially if price remains compressed near this level. I am mindful, however, that the newly identified level at 4307 is critical for tomorrow’s session, and I acknowledge that a decisive break below it would cancel the immediate northward scenario. I do not view such a move as a trend reversal, but rather as a temporary interruption that could pause the advance for several days while the market rebalances. I recognize that this type of pause would still fit within a broader bullish framework and would not contradict the prevailing directional bias. I also note that support has shifted upward to 4230, and I see this relocation as confirmation that buyers continue to defend higher ground. I conclude that as long as price remains above this rising support, I must respect the northward trend. I remain focused on the medium-term objective at 4400, and I treat this level as the next logical destination once short-term structural obstacles are resolved.

I observe that XAU/USD quotes continue to move within a developing corrective structure, and I clearly identify the price behavior as part of a Triangle formation that reflects temporary balance rather than trend exhaustion. I note that the moving averages are aligned in favor of buyers, and I interpret their configuration as confirmation of a short-term bullish trend that remains intact despite recent hesitation. I see that price has already broken upward through the area between the signal lines, and I view this breakout as evidence of sustained buying pressure and underlying demand for gold at current levels. I expect, however, that the market may first attempt a bearish corrective move, and I believe a pullback toward the 4255 support area would be technically justified and structurally healthy. I consider this potential retracement as a necessary step to absorb short-term excess and rebuild momentum before the next impulsive leg higher. I anticipate that once the price tests and respects the 4255 zone, I may observe a bullish rebound that signals the continuation of the broader upward move. I project that from such a rebound, gold prices could resume growth with a medium-term objective above the 4445 level. I remain cautious and disciplined, as I recognize that the bullish scenario would be canceled if the price declines and breaks below 4355, which I interpret as a violation of the current support structure. I understand that such a breakdown would imply a deeper correction and could open the path for a continued decline toward the 4175 area. I also monitor the resistance near 4385 closely, and I believe that a confident breakout and daily close above this level would confirm an escape from the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern. I expect that such a breakout would trigger an acceleration in bullish momentum and initiate a new expansion phase with higher upside targets. I conclude that while a short-term bearish correction remains possible, I must respect the dominant bullish context as long as key support levels hold.