FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I see Wednesday’s EURUSD close as an important technical signal because I am focusing on the clear pin bar with a long lower shadow, which tells me that buyers actively defended the downside. I am watching the current price around 1.1741 and I note that buy targets have already formed on the H1 chart, which keeps the bullish scenario technically valid. I identify the first Fibonacci expansion target at 1.1861 (161.8), and I recognize that this level is statistically the most frequently reached, yet I remain cautious about its achievement in the current conditions. I see the second target at 1.1970 (261.8) and the third extended target at 1.2128 (423.6), but I personally treat these levels as secondary scenarios rather than primary expectations. I feel that the market is heavily overbought, and I believe that price needs a meaningful corrective phase before any sustainable upward continuation. I consider the 1.1700 level as a critical pivot, and I clearly define that a clean break below this support would invalidate the bullish setup. I expect that in such a case buy targets would be canceled and sell targets would emerge, with particular attention on the 1.1592 support as a downside objective. I observe that the pair is currently flat on the H1 chart, trading around 1.17409, which reinforces my view of hesitation and balance between buyers and sellers. I take into account the InstaForex indicator, and I note that it shows a slight buyer advantage at 52.69% in the first part and a short-term upward bias in the second part, even though I am not convinced this edge is strong enough to force a breakout.

I also integrate fundamental factors into my analysis, and I acknowledge that today’s news flow is heavy and potentially market-moving. I focus on the Eurozone events, particularly the deposit rate and the ECB interest rate decision, because I know they can sharply change euro sentiment. I simultaneously monitor US fundamentals, including President Trump’s speech, CPI, core CPI, the manufacturing activity index, and initial jobless claims, because I understand that these releases can quickly strengthen or weaken the dollar. I believe that such a dense fundamental backdrop increases volatility and uncertainty, which supports my expectation of a corrective move rather than a smooth trend continuation. I think the pair is more likely to move south first and test, or even break, the 1.1700 level before any renewed upside attempt. I describe the current chart situation as a picture of complete uncertainty, and I admit that this uncertainty is reflected in my own positioning. I explain that I opened a long position earlier at 1.1706 because I respect the bullish potential from strong support. I also emphasize that I remain aware of the solid demand zone at 1.1670–1.1680, which I see as a possible base for renewed growth. I clarify that at the same time I continue to hold half of my original short position from 1.1789, which allows me to maintain a positive lock of more than 80 pips. I believe this hedged approach is justified while price fluctuates around 1.1750, and I accept that patience and disciplined risk management are essential until the market clearly reveals its next direction.